概率安全评估和可靠性分析中故障树的重要度分析  

Importance Analysis of Fault Tree in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Reliability Estimation

作　　者：宋述芳[1] 马艺琰 王璐[1] Song Shufang;Ma Yiyan;Wang Lu(School of Aeronautics,Northwestern Ploytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,西安710072

出　　处：《航空工程进展》2018年第4期506-513,共8页Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(NSFC51308459);中央高校基本科研业务费(310201401JCQ01014;3102015BJ(Ⅱ)CG0009)

摘　　要：概率安全评估中故障树的临界重要度和可靠性分析中全局灵敏度指标都可以用来表征基本事件的重要程度。两种重要度分析之间有哪些区别和联系?首先,简述概率安全评估中故障树的定性及定量分析过程;然后,介绍故障树问题在可靠性评估中的失效概率计算及全局灵敏度指标的定义;最后,通过对三个飞机系统的故障树进行分析。结果表明:概率安全分析与可靠性分析得出的系统故障的概率基本一致,而由于引入基本事件发生概率的随机性,使得基本事件的重要性排序发生变化,甚至带来颠覆性的重要性排序,并且随机分布类型和分布参数对全局灵敏度指标的影响也是需要考虑的。Both the critical importance index of fault tree analysis(FTA)in probability safety assessment and global sensitivity index in reliability estimation can be employed to determine the important input variables.What are the differences and connections between the two kinds of importance degree?Firstly,the qualitative and quantitative analysis of fault tree in probabilistic safety assessment are introduced,and then the failure probability and global sensitivity analysis of fault tree in reliability estimation are presented.Finally,several FTAs of aircraft systems are analyzed and compared.It is found that the failure probabilities are basically consistent,but the important rank of basic events will be different for the randomness of the basic events'probabilities.And the influence of the distribution types and parameters on the global sensitivity index should be not negligible.

关 键 词：故障树 概率安全评估 可靠性分析 失效概率 临界重要度 全局灵敏度 

分 类 号：V221.1[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]