我国跨区域人口迁移与财政支出的空间溢出效应——“用脚投票”视角下的面板数据模型研究  

Spatial Spillover Effect between Cross-regional Population Migration and Fiscal Expenditure in China:A Study based on the Panel Data Model from the Perspective of “Voting with Their Feet”

作　　者：赵佳佳 王建林[2] ZHAO Jia-jia;WANG Jian-lin(Institute of Economic and Social Development,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《商业研究》2018年第11期73-81,共9页Commercial Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目"央地关系调整下的转移支付;经济绩效与地方政府创新激励研究";项目编号:16YJCZH155;辽宁省教育厅人文社科研究青年项目"城市居民生活方式对能源消耗和排放的影响研究";项目编号:LN2017QN001;辽宁省哲学社会科学重点研究课题"环境治理约束下辽宁技术创新与经济增长研究";项目编号:L18AJY006

摘　　要：基于Tiebout的"用脚投票"模型,并考虑财政支出和人口迁移率可能存在空间相关性,本文采用多种空间面板模型和变换空间权重矩阵的方法进行相关考察。研究显示,财政支出与跨区域人口迁移之间存在明显的空间交互效应,同时,地区财政支出对跨区域人口迁移率存在空间反馈效应,当地财政支出对当地人口迁移率的影响会传递给邻近的地区且把邻近地区的影响传回当地本身。本地财政支出增加不仅会增加本地的人口净迁移率,而且会降低邻近地区的人口净迁移率,这可能导致了相邻地区的人口和财政政策趋同性。因此,不同地区在制定公共品供给和人才引进政策时,应注重利用自身的资源禀赋优势、空间区位优势,提供更好的营商环境和政府信誉,以提升财政资源效率;应注重财政政策与环境、产业等政策之间的整体配合与协同合作,形成区位特征,降低空间反馈效应。Based on Tiebout′s“voting with their feet”model,this paper adopts many kinds of spatial panel model and spatial weight matrix transformation methods to carry out relevant investigation considering the possible spatial correlation between the financial expenditure and population mobility.The result shows that there is an obvious spatial interaction effect between fiscal expenditure and cross-regional migration,and regional fiscal expenditure has a spatial feedback effect on cross regional population mobility,which means that the influence of local fiscal expenditure on local population mobility would transmit the neighboring region and the influence would furtherly return to local region itself.Thus,to add the fiscal expenditure would not only increase the rate of local net population migration,but also reduce the rate of net population migration of the neighborhood,which may result in the convergence of population and fiscal policies in adjacent area.Therefore,in the formulation of public goods supply and talent introduction policy,different regions should pay attention to the use of the advantages of resources and their spatial location to provide a better business environment and the credibility of the government and enhance the efficiency of financial resources;we should pay attention to the overall coordination and synergy between fiscal policy and environmental and industrial policies so as to form location characteristics and reduce spatial feedback effect.

关 键 词：TIEBOUT模型 空间面板 财政支出 人口迁移 

分 类 号：F810.45[经济管理—财政学]