中国城市经济增长的俱乐部收敛:识别方法与趋同机制——来自中国347个行政区的实证检验  

Convergence of Clubs for Urban Economic Growth:Identification Methods and Convergence Mechanisms——An Empirical Test from 347 Administrative Regions in China

作　　者：孙晓华 曹阳 SUN Xiaohua;CAO Yang(Faculty of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2018年第6期14-25,126,共13页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"劳动力与产业‘双转移刚性’下的内生型城镇化模式研究"(17BJY046)

摘　　要：在中国经济快速增长的过程中,地区间不平衡的现象始终存在。作为区域经济发展的核心载体,城市经济增长的收敛性判定是一个具有重要方法论意义的问题。与传统分析方法忽略经济增长的个体差异,通过人为设定区域边界进行收敛性标准判断不同,本文基于非线性时变因子模型,提出了城市经济增长的俱乐部收敛识别方法,并以中国347个行政区为样本对收敛性和趋同机制进行了实证检验。研究结果发现:传统的四大经济区内部均不存在经济增长的收敛现象,运用非线性时变因子模型对中国城市经济增长的收敛性进行重新划分,共得到六大趋同俱乐部;东部沿海城市之间的经济增速趋异,呈点状增长极分布,中西部城市经济增速趋同,条块状发展特征突出,东部和西部地区经济发展差距有逐步缩小的趋势;机制分析表明,物质资本投资、产业结构和对外开放是促进城市经济增长趋同的重要因素。The existing of regional imbalances is always accompanied with the rapid economic growth in China.How to judge the convergence of economic growth on the city scale is of great methodological meaning,as the city is the core carrier of regional economic development.Inconsistent with the traditional analysis methods that ignoring the individual differences in economic growth,and that the convergence criteria are judged not by the artificially set regional boundaries,this paper puts forward the method of club convergence recognition for urban economic growth based on the nonlinear time-varying factor model,and conducts empirical test on the convergence and convergence mechanism with 347 administrative regions in China.The results show that there is no convergence phenomenon of economic growth in the traditional four economic zones,and the convergence of China’s urban economic growth is re-divided by the nonlinear time-varying factor model,and six convergence clubs are obtained.Specifically,the economic growth rate between the eastern coastal cities is divergent,and the distribution characteristics of the dot-like growth pole are presented.Furthermore,the growth of the cities in the central and western regions is converging and the development trend in shape of strip is prominent.Besides,there is a tendency that the gap between the eastern and western regions has gradually narrowed down.Capital investment,industrial structure and opening-up are crucial factors for promoting the convergence of urban economic growth.

关 键 词：城市经济增长 趋同俱乐部 非线性时变因子模型 排序Logit模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]