国家治理体系完善有助于促进金融稳定吗?——基于全球214个国家的数据检验  

Does State Governance System Establishment Contribute to National Financial Stability? Based on Empirical Analysis of 214 Countries

作　　者：何国华[1] 童晶[1,2] HE Guo-hua;TONG Jing(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei,430072,China;International College,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha,Hunan,410004,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]中南林业科技大学国际学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《经济管理》2018年第12期5-20,共16页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际合作研究项目"法;金融与经济增长之再考察--中国的变革挑战与英国等国的经验"(71661137003);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"经济新常态下中国金融开放与金融安全研究"(17JZD015);国家社会科学基金一般项目"‘双支柱调控框架’下金融稳定政策设计研究"(18BJY249)

摘　　要：近年来,较多学者研究了国家治理体系中的经济制度对金融稳定的影响,而对国家治理体系中的非经济制度对金融稳定的影响缺乏严密的理论分析与实证检验,这可能导致无法全面认识金融稳定的影响因素,难以对促进金融稳定的国家治理体系建设提出有针对性的政策建议。本文首先建立数理模型分析了国家治理体系完善对金融稳定的影响机理,然后使用全球214个国家1996—2017年的121万余个数据,实证检验了国家治理体系中的非经济制度对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,完善的国家治理体系不但可以促进金融机构的稳定与宏观经济的健康发展,而且能够缓解外部风险的影响,促进实体经济融资与发展。因此,政府应当努力推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化建设,利用完善的国家治理体系来构建健康的金融环境,防范金融风险和维护金融稳定。This paper first constructs a macroeconomic model theoretically to illustrate the reasons for the differentiated effects of state governance system establishment on financial stability.Then,based on the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator(WGI)and IMF Financial Soundness Indicator(FSI),empirical evidence contributes to this literature by employing Regression Discontinuity Design(RDD)methodology and a unique data set of 1.21million data collected from 214 countries during the period from 1996 to 2017,which is consistent with our theoretical predictions.The main results show that excellent state governance system exerts a significant and positive impact on financial stability.We also find consistent evidence that it not only could boost financial institutions stability and macroeconomic sound development,but alleviate the influence of external risks and enhance the real economy financing improvement.We extract some implications for the government authorities to promote state governance system establishment and modernization.Therefore,the government should propose some ways forward to construct a systematically complete,scientifically regulatory and effectively operating institutional system to maintain financial stability and prevent financial risks accordingly.State Governance System is a series of systematic institutions,including economics,political,cultural,social and ecological civilization etc,which is a set of coordinated and related national institutions.Most of the scholars believe that improved state governance system will bring up positive effectiveness of financial stability.While the prior research focus on economic institutions,like monetary policy,regulation policy,fiscal and taxation policy and industry policy etc,lack of the overall theoretical research of political institutions,such as political stability,government effectiveness,corruption control,voice and responsibility,regulation level and law etc.So lack of overall research of state governance system may lead to unknowing about impact of

关 键 词：国家治理体系 制度建设 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F833[经济管理—金融学]