影响我国省际流动人口失业主要因素的实证分析——基于2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据的验证  

The Main Factors Affecting the Inter-provincial Floating Population's Unemployment in China:An Analysis of the Data of the Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Migrants by National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2015

作　　者：陈怡蓁 陆杰华[1] CHEN Yi-Chen;LU Jie-Hua(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《南方人口》2018年第6期10-19,共10页South China Population

摘　　要：流动人口一直是学界近年来关注的研究议题。随着流动人口规模不断扩大,尤以省际流动人口的比例更是持续增长,其中经济因素为省际流动人口的流动主因,因此他们在流入地面临的失业问题不容忽视。基于2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据,本研究采用描述性分析及logistic回归分析来探讨省际流动人口受其个人特征、区域特征及流动特征等方面对其失业产生的影响机理。研究结果发现,省际流动人口失业型态以结构性失业表现居多,其成因与个人能力及区域发展背景密切相关,为此提出缓解省际流动人口失业的相关建议。Floating population has always been an important issue for China's academic researchers.The scale of the floating population continues to grow over time especially the proportion of inter-provincial floating population rising year by year.Economic factors are the main reasons for the inter-provincial floating population's migration and their unemployment is an increasing significant social issue in China.Based on the data of the Dynamic Monitoring of Migrants by National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2015,the researcher analyzes the three factors effective on the unemployment of the inter-provincial floating population,i.e.their characteristics of individual,regional and migration and the effective mechanism by descriptive analysis and logistic regression model.The result shows that structural unemployment constitutes the majority of unemployment of the inter-provincial floating population and the causes of the structural unemployment closely correlate to the individuals'ability and the regional social and economic development.Some suggestions are put forward to for the unemployment of inter-provincial floating population accordingly.

关 键 词：省际流动人口 失业 LOGISTIC回归分析 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]