考虑负荷增长随机性的大电网电压稳定概率评估  

Probabilistic voltage stability assessment of large power grid considering stochastic load growth

作　　者：陈刚 包严 赵晋泉[2] 黄冠标 周艳 林青 CHEN Gang;BAO Yan;ZHAO Jinquan;HUANG Guanbiao;ZHOU Yan;LIN Qing(Electric Power Research Institute,China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510663,China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司,广东广州510663 [2]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2018年第23期37-44,共8页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(51577049);南方电网公司科技项目资助(KYKJXM00000001)"交直流大电网静态电压安全评估高级功能研发"~~

摘　　要：针对电压稳定负荷裕度计算中负荷增长随机性的影响,提出一种大电网电压稳定概率评估方法。该方法根据历史负荷数据采用改进K均值聚类算法将负荷分类,基于负荷预测和负荷分类结果定义负荷随机增长的期望,在此基础上建立负荷增长方向概率模型,并采用拉丁超立方采样技术获得负荷增长方向样本,运用连续潮流对各样本进行确定性的负荷裕度计算。运用该方法对我国某实际电网进行电压稳定概率评估,评估结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。Considering the influence of stochastic load growth in voltage stability load margin computation,a probabilistic voltage stability assessment method of large power grid is proposed.The improved K-means clustering algorithm is used to classify the load types according to historical load data.Then the expectation value of stochastic load growth is defined based on load forecasting and load classification results.According to the probability distributions of load growth direction,the samples are generated by the Latin Hypercube Sampling method.The continuation power flow is utilized for computing load margin of each sample.The numerical results of probabilistic voltage stability assessment in a large power grid of China show that the proposed method is effective and practical.

关 键 词：电压稳定概率评估 负荷裕度 负荷增长随机性 负荷分类 拉丁超立方采样 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]