四川盆地夏季电力负荷预报模型研究  

Research on Summer Power Load Forecasting Model in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：杨荣国 杨正容 YANG Rongguo;YANG Zhengrong(Fushun Meteorology Bureau,Fushun 643200,China;Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Provincial,Chengdu 610072,China;State Network Zigong County Power Supply Company,Zigong 643000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省富顺县气象局,四川富顺643000 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [3]国网四川省电力公司自贡供电公司,四川自贡643000

出　　处：《电工技术》2018年第21期11-13,16,共4页Electric Engineering

基　　金：四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题(编号川气课题2015-开发-27)

摘　　要：通过对四川盆地自贡市2009～2015年5～9月日电力负荷与日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温、日平均相对湿度和天气状况的相关性进行分析,发现气象要素的变化会直接影响电力负荷调整。通过多要素逐步回归分析法创建四川盆地夏季电力负荷预测模型,并对预报模型进行有效性检验和调整,可实现对气象电力负荷的预测。通过对2016年逐日气象电力负荷进行检验、分析和判定,结果表明该预报模型有很好的预报能力,将为四川盆地电网负荷的预测和运行调度提供更加精确的应用依据。Through the correlation analysis of electric power load and the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature,daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity and weather conditions of 5~9 months during 2009~2015 in Zigong city of Sichuan basin,the result of climate change would directly affect the power load adjustment was found.Through multi factor stepwise regression analysis,the summer load forecasting model of Sichuan basin was established,and the validity of the prediction model was verified and adjusted.The prediction of meteorological power load could be realized.By testing,analyzing and judging the daily meteorological power load in 2016,the results showed that the prediction model had good prediction ability,which would provide more accurate application basis for the prediction and operation of the Sichuan basin power grid load.

关 键 词：回归分析 电力负荷 气象要素 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]