基于二元决策图的中欧班列运营风险评估  

Risk evaluation for operational requirements of CR express with BDD-based method

作　　者：冯芬玲[1] 牛天聪 FENG Fenling;NIU Tiancong(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2018年第12期3281-3287,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BJY169);国家铁路局资助项目

摘　　要：将二元决策图(BDD)分析方法应用于故障树分析法,对中欧班列运营风险的评估问题进行研究,构建中欧班列运营风险评估模型。建立风险故障树之后,基于Shannon分解定理构建相应的二元决策图,并通过遍历二元决策图来计算得到各基本事件的Birnbaum测度。中欧班列运营工作人员可根据量化的基本事件重要度,得到对中欧班列运营影响最大的基本事件,从而制定相应的风险控制策略来减少损失,确保中欧班列高效运行。The paper presents a structured approach for risk evaluation and describes a Binary Decision Diagrams(BDD)based on fault tree tool for assessing risks in operational requirements of CR express to qualitatively irregular risks.After the fault tree was built,the BDD was constructed by Shannon decomposition theorem,and was calculated with BDD traversal.The manager of the CR express could make use of the important values to analyze the importance of events,and find out the most important event to reduce losses and ensure the operational requirements of CR express.

关 键 词：中欧班列 风险评估 故障树 二元决策图(BDD) 重要度 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]