转型期中国经济增长对家庭生育选择的成本效应分析——来自省级面板数据的证据  

An Analysis of the Cost Effect of China's Economic Growth on Family Birth Options in the Transitional Period:Evidence from Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：李中秋[1] 李梦凡[2] 马文武 LI Zhong-qiu;LI Meng-fan;MA Wen-wu(Finance College,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050061,China;School of Economics,Southwestern Uniersity of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 611130,China;Marxism School,Sichuan university,Chengdu Sichuan 611000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学金融学院,石家庄050061 [2]西南财经大学经济学院,成都611130 [3]四川大学马克思主义学院,成都611000

出　　处：《西北人口》2019年第1期1-10,共10页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金一般项目"京津冀协同发展背景下河北省动态化养老模式研究"(HB17YJ067)

摘　　要：中国经济转型进入新阶段,人口老龄化、少子化的背景下,文章研究了经济增长是否造成了生育意愿的降低。首先使用家庭生育理论对这一问题做一般性分析并提出假设命题,然后以经验数据为假设命题提供佐证,使用中国省级面板数据检验假设命题,得出结论,经济增长短期内通过家庭收入影响生育成本和抚养能力,长期内通过改变生育环境和居民生育观念来影响生育水平。当前阶段,两条路径均指向了经济因素呈现生育行为的成本效应,具有降低生育意愿的作用。The economic transition entering a new phase in China,in the context of population aging and low birthrate,this paper studies whether economic growth has caused a decline in fertility willingness.First,using the family birth theory to make a general analysis of this problem and put forward the hypothetical proposition that is supported by empirical data and tested by provincial panel data.It is concluded that the economic growth affects the cost of childbearing and the ability to support through family income in the short term and affects the fertility level by changing the reproductive environment and the concept of birth in the long run.At present,both paths show that economic factors are cost effects for fertility and have the effect of reducing fertility willingness.

关 键 词：经济增长 家庭收入 家庭生育选择 成本效应 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]