国际自贸区(港)背景下海南瓜菜有效供给能力研究  

Effective Supply Capacity of Melons and Vegetables in Hainan under the Background of International Free Trade Area(Island)

作　　者：金琰[1] 叶露[1] 徐磊磊[1] 侯媛媛[1] JIN Yan;YE Lu;XU Leilei;HOU Yuanyuan(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information,CATAS,Haikou,Hainan 570100)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所,海南海口570100

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2018年第10期89-93,共5页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：海南省哲学社会科学2017年规划课题[No.HNSK(ZC)17-26];南方瓜菜与南繁育种产业发展关键问题研究(No.1630072018004);热带农业大数据研究与服务科技创新团队(No.1630072017006)

摘　　要：瓜菜是海南农民稳定收入来源,瓜菜产业健康发展是海南自贸区(港)建设的必然要求。海南瓜菜供给季节性明显,生产多集中在冬季,种植优势区逐渐形成,但产业劣势显著。国际自贸区(港)为海南瓜菜产业发展带来了政策及多功能区的机遇,也带来了产业转型及人口快速增长的挑战。依据海南省人口发展规划和灰色预测模型GM(1, 1)预测海南2017、 2020～2030年瓜菜消费量及生产量。可见,海南省瓜菜供给总量充足,自给率高,供给有效性主要问题是季节上的不均衡。从种植者市场竞争力、监测预警、功能区划分、品牌建立方面为国际自贸区(港)背景下海南瓜菜有效供给提出了保障建议。The melons and vegetables is a source of stable income of farmers.It is an inevitable requirement for the construction of Hainan free trade zone(Island)to develop healthly melonsamel vegetables inndustry.The supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan is obviously seasonal.The melons and vegetables production is mostly concentrated in winter,and the dominant planting areas are gradually formed,but the disadvantages of melons and vegetables sector are obvious.The international trade zone(Island)brings not only the opportunity of the development of the melons and vegetables sector in Hainan,but also the challenge of industrial transformation and rapid population growth.Based on the Hainan population development plan and grey prediction model GM(1,1),the consumption and output of melons and vegetables in Hainan in 2017,2020 and 2030 were predicted.The results showed that the total supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan was adequate,that the self-sufficiency rate was high,and that the main problem of supply effectiveness was seasonally imbalanced.From the market competitiveness of the growers,monitoring and warning,functional area division and brand building,some suggestions for the effective supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan under the background of the international trade zone(Island)were put forward.

关 键 词：国际自贸区(港) 海南瓜菜 有效供给能力 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]