中国木质林产品出口波动特征及成因分析  

Analyze on the Characteristics and Causes of China's Woody Forest Products Export Fluctuations

作　　者：张丽媛[1] 曹旭平[1,2] ZHANG Liyuan;CAO Xuping(School of Economics and Management,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu,Jiangsu 215500 China;Suzhou Agricultural Modernization Research Center, Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu,Jiangsu 215500 China)

机构地区：[1]常熟理工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常熟215500 [2]常熟理工学院苏州农业现代化研究中心,江苏常熟215500

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2018年第6期15-20,100,共7页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：江苏省农委农业软科学基金项目(18ASS036)

摘　　要：采用描述性统计分析法和修正的CMS模型对2006—2016年中国木质林产品出口波动特征与成因分别进行分析,结果表明:中国木质林产品的出口额呈波动增长态势,其波动原因受市场规模效应影响较大,受产品结构效应影响相对较小;新兴市场的旺盛需求是推动市场分布效应不断提升的主要原因;产品竞争力效应对中国木质林产品出口起到显著正面推动的作用,但在2014—2016年出现较大负值;市场竞争力效应主要来源于美国、日本等传统目标市场以及部分新兴市场,如新加坡、澳大利亚。因此,相关企业应进一步拓展新兴市场潜力,加强生产领域科技创新,围绕市场需求进行产品个性化设计,积极开展海外直接投资。⑴Background--China is the world s largest exporter of woody forest products,but its export technology level is lower in the global industrial value chain.Additionally,China s exports of woody forest products are also facing many challenges such as rising factor costs,trade barriers,and weak market demand in developed economies.Therefore,it is meaningful to analyze the characteristics and causes of China s wood forest products export fluctuations.⑵Methods--The research data in this paper mainly comes from the UN Comtrade database,and the research time span is from 2006 to 2016.The export fluctuation characteristics of China s woody forest products use the method of descriptive data analysis,and the causes analysis uses the modified CMS model analysis method.⑶Results--The main analysis and calculation results are as follows:①The export volume of China s woody forest products increased from$21.405 billion in 2006 to$50.756 billion in 2016,an increase of 1.37 times.However,the export volume of China s woody forest products declined in 2008-2009 and 2014-2016.②The market demand for China s woody forest products export fluctuations has a large scale effect.The contribution rate of market scale effect to China s woody forest products export fluctuation reached 429.98%in 2008-2009.③The product structure effect surplus of China s woody forest products is relatively small.However,the market distribution effect surplus of China s woody forest products exports in 2006-2008,2008-2009,2009-2014 and 2014-2016 reached$0.868billion,$-0.04billion,$0.537billion and$13.099 billion respectively.It shows that the market distribution effect is increasingly promoting the export of China s woody forest products.④In 2006-2008,2008-2009,2009-2014 and 2014-2016,the competitiveness effect surplus of China s export of woody forest products reached$0.983 billion,$2.209 billion,$9.439 billion and$1.44 billion respectively.The market competitiveness effect surplus performance in 2006-2008,2008-2009 and 2009-2014 and product competi

关 键 词：木质林产品 市场规模效应 结构效应 竞争力效应 

分 类 号：F752.65[经济管理—国际贸易]