人工智能、奇点时代与中国机遇  

Artificial Intelligence,Singularity Age and China's Opportunity

作　　者：杨虎涛[1] YANG Hu-tao(Economics School,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2018年第12期12-20,共9页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"以国民共享和产业协同为导向的创新驱动战略及其政策选择研究"(14BJL005)

摘　　要：工业革命以来的技术进步集中体现为机械化和自动化,而当前快速发展的人工智能仍属于弱人工智能领域,它通过标准化和数据化进一步强化和提升机械化和自动化程度,其主要技术价值在于搜索、匹配和预测,而非自主意识和创造性。作为一种通用技术,弱人工智能对经济的影响将再现一次索洛悖论,即实际工资和劳动生产率不会在短期内有爆发式的表现,而由于生产率效应、资本积累效应、自动化加速深化以及劳动密集型新工作创造等多种机制的存在,弱人工智能对就业的冲击也主要是结构性和短期性的,而不是总量和长期性的。由于人工智能的发展严重依赖于数据体量、市场规模和完整的产业链效应,这都为中国人工智能的发展提供了新的赶超型机会窗口。Since the industrial revolution,The technological progress is concentrated on mechanization and automation,Currently,The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI)is still belongs to weak artificial intelligence.It further strengthens and enhances the degree of mechanization and automation through standardization and digitalization.Its main technical value lies in Search,match and predict,not autonomy and creativity.As a General-purpose technologies(GPTs),the economic impact of weak artificial intelligence will reproduce a Solow paradox,real wages and labor productivity will not have explosive performance in a short period of time,due to productivity effects,capital deepening and automation deepening,and The existence of multiple mechanisms such as the creation of new labor-intensive jobs,the impact of weak artificial intelligence on employment is also mainly structural and short-term,rather than the overall and long-term effects.Since the development of artificial intelligence relies heavily on data volume,market scale and complete industrial chain effect,it provides a new window of opportunity for the development of artificial intelligence in China.

关 键 词：人工智能 索洛悖论 奇点时代 机会窗口 

分 类 号：F416.67[经济管理—产业经济]