稳健货币政策下国内房价上涨的原因及地区差异性研究——基于Bayesian VAR模型的分析  

The Study on the Reasons and Regional Difference of Domestic House Price Increase under Prudent Monetary Policy——Based on the Analysis of Bayesian VAR Model

作　　者：赵红雨[1] 李沂[1] 田爽 ZHAO Hongyu;LI Yi;TIAN Shuang(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an International Studies University,Xi'an,Shaanxi,710128,China)

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学经济金融学院,陕西西安710128

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期16-24,共9页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:促进区域经济均衡增长的货币政策区域化调控机制研究(71173165);陕西省软科学研究计划项目:陕西高端服务业发展的支持模式与路径选择(2015KRM031);西安外国语大学科研计划项目:渐进开放环境下西安房价波动的生成机制及风险调控研究(18XWB19)

摘　　要：在稳健货币政策约束下,对引发国内房价阶段性上涨的原因进行分析,并基于2012—2018年相关变量时间序列数据,运用Bayesian VAR模型,实证分析东部、中部、西部地区房价变动存在的差异性。研究结果表明:由于广义货币供给量增速与GDP、CPI增速之和已基本一致,在市场流动性偏紧条件下,货币供给已无法推动房价上涨。在此背景下,商业银行利用住房抵押贷款调节不良资产率,防范和化解金融风险,成为国内房价整体出现阶段性上涨的重要原因。与此同时,我国不同地区房价上涨存在差异性,东部地区房价上涨的主要原因在于市场刚性需求的增强;中部地区房价上涨的主要动力来源于土地财政的加深和商业银行对不良资产的调节;西部地区房价上涨的原因在于商业银行对不良资产的调节和市场预期的增强。房价调控应坚持因地施策的政策导向,在坚决抑制房价上涨的同时,进一步加快经济结构调整步伐,为房价合理回归奠定基础。Under the constraint of prudent monetary policy,the reasons that caused the periodical rise of domestic house price were analyzed.Meanwhile,based on the time series data of relevant variables from 2012 to 2018,and by means of Bayesian VAR models,an empirical analysis was carried out about the differences of changes in house prices among regions of the east,the middle and the west.The results show that because the increasing speed of broad money supply is in agreement with the sum of GDP and CPI growth,the money supply has been unable to push the rise of house price under the condition of tight market liquidity.In this background,the important reason leading to the periodical overall rise of house price lies in the fact that commercial banks use loan on mortgage to adjust non-performing loan ratio,prevent and defuse financial risks.At the same time,there are the differences of house price increase in different regions.The main reason of house price rise in the east is the increase of market rigid demand;but in the middle regions,the main power resources for the rise of house prices are from the enhancement of land finance and the adjustment of non-performing assets in commercial banks;and in the west,the reason for the rise of house price rests with the adjustment of non-performing assets and the reinforce of market expectation.Therefore,it is necessary for our country to insist on the guidance of local policy,constraint the rise of house price with a strong hand,and accelerate the economic restructuring in order to lay foundations for the reasonable regression of house prices.

关 键 词：货币政策 房价 BayesianVAR模型 经济增长 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]