动态Bradley-Terry模型在CBA球队实力分析中应用  

The application of dynamic Bradley-Terry model in analysis of abilities about teams in China Basketball Association

作　　者：侯文[1] 黄倩 郭丹 HOU Wen;HUANG Qian;GUO Dan(School of Mathematics,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学数学学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期439-445,共7页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅自然科学类服务地方项目(LF201783613);辽宁师范大学2018年本科教学改革研究项目(LS201856)

摘　　要：在体育比赛数据中,胜负关系数据是其中的重要类型,属于成对比较数据,而Bradley-Terry模型是拟合成对比较数据的主要模型.Bradley-Terry模型结合指数加权移动平均过程,对中国男子职业篮球联赛2015—2016常规赛季的20支球队的实力进行动态分析,得到了各支球队的实力在常规赛季中随时间变化的趋势,再根据球队实力变化趋势,将20支球队分成三大类,每一类都表现出了不同的特点.与Bradley-Terry模型分析结果相比,应用指数加权移动平均过程的动态Bradley-Terry模型提供的信息更多,计算结果更合理.In the sports data,the winning and losing relationship data is an important type,which belongs pairwise comparison data,and the Bradley-Terry model is the main model for fitting pairwise comparison data.Applying Bradley-Terry model combined with exponentially weighted moving average process to analyze the strengths of20teams for CBA during the regular season in2015-2016,we got the change trend of the strength of each team along with time variation during the regular season.Then we divide20teams into3categories based on the change trend of the ability of each team,and different categories showed different characters.Compared with the analysis results only applying Bradley-Terry model,applying Bradley-Terry model combined with exponentially weighted moving average process could provide more information and more reasonable calculation results.

关 键 词：成对比较数据 Bradley-Terry模型 指数加权移动平均过程 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]