甘肃省发热呼吸道症候群病例与主要病毒的动态响应  

Study on the dynamic response of patients with febrile respiratory syndrome and the main detection viruses in Gansu Province

作　　者：朱莞琪 李娟生[1] 孟蕾[2] 李学朝 刘新凤[2] 张继巍 于德山[2] 蒋小娟[2] 杨玫 牛丽霞 ZHU Wanqi;LI Juansheng;MENG Lei;LI Xuechao;LIU Xinfeng;ZHANG Jiwei;YU Deshan;JIANG Xiaojuan;YANG Mei;NIU Lixia(School of Public health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2018年第6期29-32,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004-208、2017ZX10103006);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(lzujbky-2017-it33)

摘　　要：目的 探讨甘肃省发热呼吸道症候群病例数与主要病毒检出数的动态响应关系,为急性呼吸道传染病早期流行的预警提供参考。方法 依据甘肃省2011—2015年发热呼吸道症候群病例病毒谱,确定主要病毒,构建向量自回归模型(VAR);分析症候群病例数与主要病毒的动态响应关系,拟合病例序列并评价拟合效果。结果 病例感染主要病毒为鼻病毒、流感病毒和呼吸道合胞病毒,分别占病毒谱的29.05%、25.09%和21.01%。VAR(1)模型的拟合优度为0.673,其AIC和SC值分别为15.777和15.999,希尔不等系数为0.132。症候群病例对主要病毒检出情况存在单向的影响(格兰杰检验:F=2.553,P<0.05)。受症候群病例的冲击,主要病毒有正响应,检出率涨幅最高达5.40%(95%CI:3.30%-7.40%),短期内可达平稳状态。结论 甘肃省发热呼吸道症候群病例数与主要病毒检出数的动态响应关系成立,向量自回归模型的短期拟合效果较好。Objective To explore the dynamic response relationship between the number of patients with febrile respiratory syndrome(FRS)and the main detection viruses in Gansu Province,so as to provide reference for early warning of acute respiratory infectious diseases. Methods According to the virus spectrum of patients with FRS in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2015,the main viruses were determined to establish vector autoregressive(VAR)model.The dynamic response relationship between the number of patients and the main viruses was analyzed based on it.Subsequently,the patient sequence was fitted,and the fitting effect was evaluated. Results Rhinovirus,influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus were the main viruses for patients with FRS,accounting for 29.05%,25.09%and 21.01%of the virus spectrum.The goodness of fit index of VAR(1)model was 0.673,the minimum value of Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)and Schwartz Criterion(SC)was 15.777 and 15.999 respectively,and the Theil inequality coefficient was 0.132.In addition,the number of patients with FRS had a one-way Granger effect on the main detection viruses(Granger test:F=2.553,P<0.05).The main viruses had a positive response to the impact from patients with FRS,and the highest increase in detection rate was 5.40%(95%CI:3.30%-7.40%),which could close to a steady state in the short term. Conclusion The dynamic response between the number of patients with FRS and the main detection viruses in Gansu Province was feasible,and the VAR model was effective in short-term fitting.

关 键 词：发热呼吸道症候群 病毒 动态响应 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学] R56[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]