基于改进GA-BP算法的节假日交通流量预测  

Prediction Expressway Traffic Flow on Holidays with Modified GA-BP Model

作　　者：陈晓利[1] 王珂[2] 彭金栓[2] 李远哲[1] CHEN Xiaoli;WANG Ke;PENG Jinshuan;LI Yuanzhe

机构地区：[1]招商局重庆交通科研设计院有限公司,重庆400067 [2]重庆交通大学山地城市交通系统与安全重庆市重点实验室,重庆400074

出　　处：《公路交通技术》2018年第6期114-117,共4页Technology of Highway and Transport

基　　金：重庆市社会事业与民生保障科技创新专项项目(cstc2015shms-ztzx30001;cstc2015shms-ztzx30014);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M582525;2016T90838)

摘　　要：为了预测和控制节假日道路交通流流量、制定正确的交通管控对策,基于改进的GA-BP人工智能算法,构建了节假日交通流量预测模型和预警模型,并结合实测数据验证了模型的可靠性、鲁棒性。该模型可为交通管理部门制定缓解交通拥堵措施、实施节假日交通广域诱导提供有效的技术支持。In order to predict and control the traffic flow density of holiday roads and to formulate correct management countermeasures,based on the improved GA-BP artificial intelligence algorithm,this paper proposes the traffic flow forecast model of the holiday traffic flow and the early warning traffic flow model,and verify the reliability and robustness of the model through the measured data.The model can provide effective technical support for the traffic management department to formulate measures to alleviate traffic congestion and implement wide-area induction of holiday traffic.

关 键 词：GA-BP算法 交通流 预警模型 预测 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]