基于需求侧变动的水库供水限制库容预测方法  

A prediction method for water supply based on demand and limited capacity of the reservoir

作　　者：邱志章[1,2,3] 赵容娇 葛杭建[1,2] QIU Zhizhang;ZHAO Rongjiao;GE Hangjian(Zhe jiang Institute of Hydraulics & Estuary,Hangzhou 310020;Zhejiang Province Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Hangzhou 310020;Dingchuan Information Technology Inc.,Hangzhou 310020)

机构地区：[1]浙江省水利河口研究院,杭州310020 [2]浙江省水利防灾减灾重点实验室,杭州310020 [3]杭州定川信息技术有限公司,杭州310020

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2018年第12期60-64,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：针对持续干旱状态下水库来水量急剧减少的情况,基于城镇供水中需求侧动态变动的特点,提出水库水源可供水天数预测方法,以及不同干旱程度下的水库蓄水库容(水位)计算方法,为各级防汛抗旱机构和供水主管部门制订抗旱供水应急预案提供判别指标及相应的计算方法。In view of the drastic decrease of reservoir water inflow under continuous drought,based on the dynamic change of demand in urban water supply,a prediction method for the days of water supply for reservoir water source and a calculation method for reservoir storage capacity(water level)under different drought degrees are proposed.It provides discriminant indexes and corresponding calculation methods for flood prevention and drought relief agencies and water supply departments at all levels to developing emergency plans for drought relief and water supply.

关 键 词：需求侧 水库 供水 可供水天数 限制库容 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程]