互联网背景下应对“一带一路”贸易风险的机制设计研究  

A Study on Mechanism Design for Reducing Risk in “the Belt and Road”International Trades under Internet Circumstances

作　　者：李笑影[1] 李玲芳[1] LI Xiao-ying;LI Ling-fang(School of Management, Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2018年第12期97-114,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目"电子商务及信息经济学"(批准号71522007);国家自然科学基金重大项目"大数据环境下的商务行为机理研究"(批准号71490721);上海市曙光计划项目"市场机制设计在网络平台上的应用"(批准号17SG05)

摘　　要：信息不对称带来的交易风险是国际贸易面临的重要问题。"一带一路"沿线国家信用风险普遍偏高,贸易中的信息不对称问题较为严重。经侦投诉机制通过公开欠款投诉信息,缓解"一带一路"沿线贸易中的欠款问题。本文运用动态博弈信号模型,研究了经侦投诉机制的作用机理和适用范围。结果表明,经侦投诉机制有以下优点:(1)提高社会总福利,扩大交易量;(2)保护卖家,避免卖家由于低估欠款风险而遭受损失;(3)降低市场价格,保护诚信的买家,减少欠款行为。经侦投诉机制的效果受到买家流动性的影响,买家流动性越小,经侦投诉机制的效果越好。在"一带一路"倡议下,政策制定者可以根据具体的市场条件和政策目标选择是否采用经侦投诉机制:如果政策目标是保护出口商,在市场价格偏低的情况下,建议使用经侦投诉机制,可以在经侦网站中增设"欠款投诉"功能并公开投诉信息;如果政策目标是保护进口商,在市场价格偏高、买家流动性较低以及执行成本较低的情况下,建议使用经侦投诉机制,可以和"一带一路"沿线国家的电子商务网站合作,公开欠款投诉信息。Trading risk due to asymmetric information is one of the main issues in international trades. Most of the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative have high risks in trades, and the asymmetric information problem is relatively severe. "Report disclosure" is a kind of reputation mechanism which can help trades alleviate moral hazard problems via disclosing non-payment records. We use dynamic signaling model to study the effect and scope of this mechanism. We find that "report disclosure" has several benefits:(1) It increases the total social welfare and the total trading volume.(2) It protects sellers, and helps sellers to avoid losing money because of underestimating the default risk.(3)It lowers the market prices, and protects honest buyers from default. However,"report disclosure" mechanism does not work in all cases as it will be affected by the turnover rate of buyers in the market. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, policy makers can decide whether to adopt the "report disclosure"mechanism depending on their own objectives:(1)If the policy maker’s objective is to protect exporters, and the market price is relatively low, then it is better to adopt the "report disclosure" mechanism.(2)If the policy maker’s objective is to protect importers and the markets where the market price is relatively high, buyers’ turnover rate is relatively low and the executive cost is relatively low, then it is better to adopt the "report disclosure" mechanism,and to cooperate with the e-commerce platforms of the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative by disclosing the defaulting buyers’ information.

关 键 词：信息不对称 道德风险 信号博弈 声誉 诚信 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]