美国“铁锈带”及其政治影响  

America's Rust Belt and Its Political Implications

作　　者：张文宗[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所美国政治研究室

出　　处：《美国研究》2018年第6期109-126,共18页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

摘　　要：科技进步、国际贸易冲击和强大的工会等因素,导致美国"铁锈带"近半个世纪以来陷入整体性、持续性的衰落。该地区长期支持民主党的诸州在2016年大选中集体倒戈,陷入困顿的白人蓝领选择支持鼓吹反建制和反全球化的特朗普。这既是特朗普入主白宫的关键,也可能开启美国新的政党重组和区域重组进程。特朗普政府为了回馈支持者,巩固其执政地位,确保共和党在新的政治变迁中占据优势,采取了一系列振兴"铁锈带"的措施,但短期内这些措施难以取得实质性效果。在当今美国政治中地位凸显的"铁锈带",在2018年中期选举后似乎重新建立起有利于民主党的"蓝墙",其最终的政治倾向将直接影响2020年美国大选的结果。共和党和民主党将对该地区的白人蓝领选民展开争夺,并因此更易于就贸易保护政策达成共识。虽然"铁锈带"从中美经贸关系获益,但作为美国贸易保护主义的温床,该地区的钢铁企业和工会等利益集团持续推动美国对中国实施贸易保护政策。未来中美两国间的贸易摩擦将对"铁锈带"的发展前景产生重要影响。Technological advances,globalization and powerful labor unions contributed to the decline of the U. S. Rust Belt. The weary and disaffected white blue-collar workers in the region,who used to be firm supporters of the Democratic Party,switched to support the Republican candidate Donald J. Trump,an anti-establishment and anti-globalization businessman,in the 2016 presidential election,and sent him to the White House. This important transformation seemed to signify the beginning of party and sectional realignment. To honor his campaign promises,President Trump implemented some policies to revive the Rust Belt,consolidate his political status,and guarantee the GOP's position in a new round of political cycles. However,it is difficult for these policies to yield immediate fruits in the short run. It seems that as the Democratic Party rebuilt the Rust Belt "Blue Wall"in the 2018 midterm election,blue-collar workers will play a vital role in the 2020 presidential election. Therefore,the Democratic and the Republican parties will compete intensely to woo their votes. Against this backdrop,it is easier for the two parties to reach a consensus on trade protectionism. On the whole,the Rust Belt has benefited greatly from the U.S.trade with China. However,by virtue of outsourcing manufacturing jobs,the steel companies and labor unions in the region will push American protectionism against China. The trade conflict between the two countries will have a significant impact on the future of the Rust Belt.

关 键 词：美国经济 “铁锈带”特朗普 贸易保护 中美经贸关系 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]