人口老龄化背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应——基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据的分析  

Labour Substitution Effect of Artificial Intelligence in the Era of Population Aging:Evidence from Panel Data across Countries and Panel Data at Provincial Level in China

作　　者：陈秋霖[1] 许多[2] 周羿 Chen Qiulin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院 [3]北京大学社会研究中心

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2018年第6期30-42,126,127,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：北京大学光华思想力课题"人口老龄化与中国长期经济增长"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据,构建二阶段最小二乘回归模型,通过研究人口老龄化如何影响人工智能应用及人工智能应用如何影响经济增长,考察在老龄化背景下,人工智能对劳动力是否存在替代效应和存在怎样的替代效应。研究结果表明,人口老龄化导致的劳动力短缺会促使一个经济体更多地应用智能化生产,人口老龄化是人工智能发展的诱因;智能化生产对当地生产总值有正向影响,有助于抵偿人口老龄化所造成的经济增长放缓,人工智能是应对老龄化的重要工具。当前人工智能发展属于"诱导式创新",与劳动力之间是替代关系,而且是"补位式替代",不是"挤出式替代"。如果维护好这些特征,人工智能将在未来老龄化大背景下为中国经济做出更大的贡献。Based on panel data across countries and panel data at provincial level in China,this study explores how population aging induces the application of artificial intelligence(AI)and how the application of AI affects economic growth with the two-stage least square model.It investigates whether the application of AI substitutes labor force,and if yes,how such a substitution effect works.The results show that,the shortage of labour force caused by population aging would push an economy to apply more AI in production.Population aging is conductive to the development of AI.The application of AI has positive effects on local gross production and hence partially offsets the negative impact of population aging on economic growth.AI plays an important role in reacting to population aging.The development of AI is“induced innovation”driven by population aging,thus it’s the“compensating substitute”for labour force rather than the“crowding-out substitute”.With these mechanisms,AI is expected to contribute greatly to the economy in the era of population aging.

关 键 词：老龄化 人工智能 智能化生产 替代效应 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]