沈阳市PM_(2.5)离子成分对呼吸疾病门诊数影响研究  

Effect of the association between PM_(2.5) and its water-soluble ions and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Shenyang City

作　　者：洪也[1] 张莹[2] 马雁军[1] 张军[3] 侯率[3] 王式功[2] 陈凯奇 李慧 张云海[1] 周德平[1] 王扬锋[1] HONG Ye;ZHANG Ying;MA Yan-jun;ZHANG Jun;HOU Shuai;WANG Shi-gong;CHEN Kai-Qi;LI Hui;ZHANG Yun-hai;ZHOU De-ping;WANG Yang-feng(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110016,China;Collage of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610025,China;The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang 110005,China;College of Global Change and Earth System Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;The Third the People’s Hospital of Bengbu,Bengbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610025 [3]中国医科大学附属第四医院,辽宁沈阳110005 [4]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875 [5]蚌埠市第三人民医院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2018年第12期4697-4705,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目(2017SYIAEMS6);中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX 20160307);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0212301);中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层和大气化学国家重点实验室开放课项目(LAPC-KF-2017-02);辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(201502);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41375146)

摘　　要：采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析沈阳市大气污染物及PM_(2.5)中水溶性离子对呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数的影响,并按性别和年龄分层建模.结果表明:PM_(2.5)及其各离子成分与呼吸系统疾病门诊人数之间存在关联,并有明显的滞后效应.受冬季供暖燃煤排放影响,PM_(2.5)、NO_3^-和NH_4^+呈显著关联,在滞后累积2d后风险最大.最佳滞后时间下,PM_(2.5)的浓度每增加10μg/m^3,对应呼吸系统疾病日门诊就诊人数增加百分比(ER)为1.31%(95%CI:1.2%～1.43%);离子成分SO_4^(2-)、NO_3^-、NH_4^+、Cl^-、K^+、Mg^(2+)、Ca^(2+)和Na^+的浓度每增加1个4分位间距(IQR),对应的呼吸系统疾病日门诊就诊人数增加百分比(ER)分别为3.22%(95%CI:2.81%～3.62%)、4.67%(95%CI:4.13%～5.22%)、5.41%(95%CI:4.49%～6.33%)、 7.38%(95%CI:3.91%～10.96%)、 0.14%(95%CI:-6.34%～7.07%)、 7.64%(95%CI:-11.87%～31.47%)、 3.57%(95%CI:-2.83%～10.39%)和0.46%(95%CI:-16.64%～21.06%).PM_(2.5)、Cl^-、Mg^(2+)、Ca^(2+)和Na^+对女性呼吸疾病门诊人数的影响比对男性的影响大.PM_(2.5)、SO_4^(2-)、Cl^-、Ca^(2+)和Na^+对≥65岁的老人门诊人数的影响比对15～65岁劳动年龄人群的影响大.表明不同性别、不同年龄由于生理结构和环境因素的不同而引起的差异不同.A semi-parametric generalized additive model(GAM)was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between PM2.5and its water-soluble(WS)ions and daily respiratory hospital outpatient visits from2015to2016in Shenyang after a complex control of the long-term trend,the“day of the week”effect,and the meteorological parameter.The layering model was established for people with different sexes and ages.The results showed that PM2.5and its WS ions had a lag correlation with daily outpatient visits.Due to the coal burning emissions in winter,PM2.5,NO3^-and NH4^+had a significantly positively correlative with outpatient visits.With the largest correlation coefficient of2-days lags(avg01).Under the optimal lagging time,the excess risk(ER%)of daily outpatients was increased by1.31%with a95%confidence interval(CI)of1.2%~1.43%when PM2.5concentration increased10μg/m3.As ionic concentrations of SO4^2-,NO3^-,NH4^+,Cl^-,K^+,Mg^2+,Ca^2+and Na^+increased by1interquartile range(IQR),the ER%of daily outpatients increased by3.22%(with95%CI:2.81%~3.62%),4.67%(4.13%~5.22%),5.41%(4.49%~6.33%),7.38%(3.91%~10.96%),0.14%(-6.34%-7.07%),7.64%(-11.87%-31.47%),3.57%(-2.83%-10.39%)and0.46%(-16.64%-21.06%),respectively.PM2.5,Cl^-,Mg^2+,Ca^2+,and Na+had a greater effect on the number of respiratory disease female outpatients than on male ones.Compared with the population aged between15and65,PM2.5,SO4^2-,Cl^-,Ca^2+and Na+exerted a greater effect on the elderly population aged65and above.This indicated that there was difference among population of different sexes and ages due to the divergence in physiological structure and environmental factors.

关 键 词：时间序列 水溶性离子 呼吸系统疾病 医院门诊就诊人数 PM2.5 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]