金沙江航运开发的必要性研究——基于云南省物流需求GM(1,1)灰色预测分析  

Necessity Research about Shipping Development of Jinsha River: Based on GM(1,1) Grey Forecast Analysis of Logistics Demand in Yunnan Province

作　　者：冉文学 杨礼凡 孔民警 罗永娇 RAN Wen-xue;YANG Li-fan;KONG Min-jing;LUO Yong-jiao(School of Logistics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221;Yunnan College of Business Management,Kunming 650106,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学物流学院,云南昆明650221 [2]云南经济管理学院,云南昆明650106

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2018年第12期25-28,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71661029)

摘　　要：金沙江为长江上游,其作为连接滇中地区和长江经济带的重要纽带,自古以来人们就一直在探索其航运开发的可行性和必要性。金沙江航运一旦开通,不但在流域经济发展中会起着基础性作用,更是打通东南亚、南亚——滇中——长江经济带物流大通道的关键一环。在对金沙江下游进行实地考察的基础上,文中通过模糊预测GM(1,1)预测云南省未来货运量的发展情况以及GDP的发展情况,同时,结合定性分析认为金沙江航运开发对云南省经济有重要影响,对云南建设"辐射中心"有积极推动作用。Jinsha River is the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.As an important link between the central area of Yunnan and the Yangtze River economic belt,it always being explored the feasibility and necessity of its shipping development since ancient times.Once the Jinsha River shipping is opened,it will not only play a fundamental role in the economic development of the river basin but also a key link for opening up the logistics corridor in Southeast Asia&South Asia-Central Yunnan-the Yangtze River economic belt.Based on the field investigation in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River,this paper predicts the future freight volume and GDP of Yunnan Province by fuzzy prediction GM(1,1)and combined with qualitative analysis,it is considered that the shipping development of the Jinsha River has an important impact on the economy of Yunnan Province and will promote the construction of“radiation center”in Yunnan province.

关 键 词：金沙江航运 模糊预测GM(1 1) 云南经济 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]