基于传染病机制的突发事件下群体情绪感染模型  

Crowd Emotional Contagion Model Based on the Epidemic Mechanism under Emergencies

作　　者：何高奇[1,2] 边晓晖 孙菲 卢兴见 HE Gao-qi;BIAN Xiao-hui;SUN Fei;LU Xing-jian(Department of Computer Science and Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Smart City Collaborative Innovation Center,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学计算机科学与工程系,上海200237 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [3]上海交通大学智慧城市协同创新中心,上海200240

出　　处：《华东理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第6期909-917,949,共10页Journal of East China University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61602175);地理信息科学教育部重点实验室基金(KLGIS2015A05);上海市软件和集成电路产业发展专项资金(150809);工信部绿色制造系统集成项目(9908000006)

摘　　要：突发事件往往伴随着大量的人员伤亡,实践表明群体恐慌情绪的产生和蔓延是上述伤亡的一个重要致因。基于SIRS传染病模型,提出了一个改进的群体情绪感染模型E-SIRS,建立恐慌传播过程中的状态转移关系及其定量表达函数。利用Lyapunov理论计算该自组织环境下群体情绪感染的平衡稳定点;利用NetLogo动态模拟了突发事件下群体情绪感染的人数变化趋势。实验结果表明,E-SIRS能较全面地刻画恐慌人群情绪的动态变化,有助于进一步的应急决策。Frequent emergencies have the characteristics of suddenness,high uncertainty,persistent and destructiveness,and always bring massive casualties,while practice has showed that the generation and spread of crowd panic emotion is an important cause of those casualties.Therefore,the modeling and simulation of crowd emotional contagion under emergencies have extensive demands for social applications.Nevertheless,its accuracy and practicability also face great challenges,including complicated emotion theories,emotional contagion mechanisms,inadequately considered contagion models,and non-intuitive simulation for crowd emotional contagion models.Based on the epidemic mechanism of SIRS(Susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible)model,this paper proposes an improved crowd emotional contagion model E-SIRS,which takes the consideration of the influences of crowd environment,individuals and social factors on individual emotional states in emergency under self-organization conditions.This proposed model classifies the crowd into three states according to their panic level:susceptible state,infected state and recovery state.Besides,this paper also establishes the state transition relation during the spread of panic and its quantitative expression.And then,from the perspective of complex dynamical systems,the Lyapunov method is utilized to analyze the stability of this model.There is a non-zero threshold during the spread of crowd panic emotion in homogeneous network.When parameter is less than the threshold,panic emotion will finally disappear.When parameter is greater than the threshold,the proportion of panic people will eventually converge a non-zero value.Finally,the NetLogo tool is used to build a dynamics simulation model to observe the number of trends for crowd emotional contagion.The results showed that E-SIRS can describe the dynamic changes of emotion of panic crowd comprehensively,and provide the scientific basis for real-time monitoring and early warning of mass incidents,especially,unexpected group incidents in t

关 键 词：突发事件 情绪感染 感染模型 稳定性分析 人群仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]