基于S型成本消耗曲线的合同履行进度分析及偏差处理  

Analysis and Deviation Process of Contract Performance Based on S-type Cost Consumption Curve

作　　者：蔡万区 黄栋[1] 叶卫民 CAI Wanqu;HUANG Dong;YE Weimin(Management Engineering and Equipment Department of Economics,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2018年第12期146-149,156,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"金融市场时间序列非线性协整的非参数检验估计方法及实证研究"(编号:17BJY028)资助

摘　　要：在装备采购合同履行监督中,传统挣值分析忽视了成本消耗非线性增长的特点,为此构建出S型成本-时间曲线,分析挣值与计划价值累积增长之间的关系,改进传统的时间预测指标;而对于可能出现的进度偏差,利用赶工成本函数,给出为控制工序完工时间而应追加的合理成本投入,实现成本、进度要素的跟踪管理,对军方及时控制风险,保证合同进展具有一定的指导意义。In the supervision of the implementation of equipment procurement contracts,the traditional earned value analysis ignores the characteristics of non-linear growth of cost consumption.Therefore,an S-type cost-time curve is constructed to analyze the relationship between earned value and cumulative growth of planned value,and improve the traditional time forecasting indicators;and for possible progress deviations,the cost-to-work function is introduced to give a reasonable cost investment to control the completion time of the process,to achieve tracking and management of costs and schedule elements,which has a certain guiding significance of controlling the risks and ensuring the progress of the contract.

关 键 词：挣值管理 进度 成本消耗曲线 赶工成本 

分 类 号：E23[军事—军事理论]