网贷市场风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Net Loan Market

作　　者：张哲 Zhang Zhe(Economics School,Fudan University,Shanghai,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《上海经济》2018年第6期82-98,共17页Shanghai Economy

摘　　要：文章爬取了469家网贷平台的平均借款期限、累积待还余额等16个基础变量,通过模糊数学无量纲处理后,应用因子分析确立了运营、品牌、借款指数等6个准则层指标,应用层次分析法得到变量层指标的权重,最终计算得到每个平台的风险指数。积木盒子风险最小,为5.6;金票通风险最大,为32,风险指数为右偏态分布。文章指出管理、借款、资本指数低是造成平台风险大的主要原因,进一步指出风险指数每增加一个单位,平台出现问题的概率增加0.0084935,其中提现困难的概率增加0.0072826,跑路的概率增加0.0009584。最后作者对网贷平台自身的风控及政府监管提出了建议。In this paper,16 basic variables of the 469 net loan platforms,such as the average loan term,and the accumulation of the remaining balance are taken.After the undimensional treatment by using fuzzy mathematics,6 criteria level indicators such as operation index,brand index and borrowing index are established by using factor analysis,and the weight of the variable layer index is obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the risk index of each platform is calculated.Among the platforms,the minimum risk index is 5.6,it is from“jimubox”,the maximum risk index is 32,it is from“jin piaotong”,and the risk index is right skew distribution.This paper points out that the low index of management,borrowing,and capital are the main causes of the platform risk.It is further pointed out that the risk index increases by one unit,the probability of the platform which goes bad increases by 0.0084935,the probability of the difficulty in getting cash is increased by 0.0072826,and the probability of making off with money is increased by 0.0009584.Finally,the author puts forward some suggestions on the risk control and government supervision of the net loan platform.

关 键 词：P2P风险评估 模糊数学 因子分析 层次分析 

分 类 号：F382[经济管理—产业经济]