模糊物元理论在干旱分析中的应用研究  

Application of Fuzzy Matter-element Theory in Drought Analysis of Weihe River Basin

作　　者：冯星 孙东永[1] 胡维登 张彤 郭建青[1] FENG Xing;SUN Dongyong;HU Weideng;ZHANG Tong;GUO Jianqing(Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [2]河海大学水文与水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水文》2018年第6期18-23,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(211029140387);中央高校科研项目(310829161008)

摘　　要：干旱的评价指标具有多样性,各种指标在优劣程度上是渐变的,具有模糊性,不同的干旱指标对干旱的分析会存在一定的差异性。利用渭河流域1960～2010年近50a的日气候资料,通过分析计算选取标准降水指数、综合干旱指数和降水距平百分率并通过模糊物元理论将这三种干旱评价指标结合起来构建一种新的评价方法并与已发生的干旱进行分析对比。结果显示:模糊物元理论可以很好的将多种干旱指标结合起来从而减小不同指标分析所存在的差异性;且与单独一干旱指标所分析的干旱趋势没有出现较大的偏差。可以将多种分析方法结合起来更好的揭示干旱的变化规律,定量评价流域内的干旱变化情况,对抗旱减灾工作有重要的科学意义。The evaluation indexes of the drought are diverse.Different indexes are gradually changing,fuzzy and differential in ana-lyzing the drought.This paper took the daily climate data from the 21 hydrometry stations in the Weihe River basin during 1960-2010 to analyze the standard precipitation indexes,integrated drought indexes and precipitation anomaly percentage,and combined these three kinds of drought indexes to form a new evaluation method based on the fuzzy matter-lelement theory,and then com-pared the droughts that have happened.The results show that the fuzzy matter-element theory can better reduce the difference of drought analysis by combining three drought evaluation indexes.Moreover,it has no large deviation when comparing the single drought evaluation index.Hence,this method can better reveal the changing patterns,and has a great scientific significance to guide the drought relief and disaster reduction.

关 键 词：渭河流域 干旱 指标评价 模糊物元理论 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]