基于投影寻踪模型的镶黄旗水资源承载力评价及其在水源调配中的应用  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xianghuang Banner Based on Projection Pursuit Model and Its Application in Water Resources Allocation

作　　者：赵义平[1] 于向前[1] 刘伟[1] 刘迪[1] 汪馨竹[1] 王明新[1] ZHAO Yiping;YU Xiangqian;LIU Wei;LIU Di;WANG Xinzhu;WANG Mingxin(Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area,MWR,Hohhot 010020,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《水文》2018年第6期72-76,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41402224);中国水科院科研专项(MK2016J06;MK2016J25;MK2016J26;MK2017J06)

摘　　要：镶黄旗属于典型的半干旱牧区,部分地区水资源供给已无法满足其经济发展需求,急需在水资源承载力评价的基础上规划水源调配方案。依据镶黄旗水资源利用特点构建了承载力评价指标体系,并基于投影寻踪模型作评价。投影特征值计算显示,全旗水资源承载力整体较弱,各分区中,以新宝拉格镇最弱,翁贡乌拉苏木稍好。最佳投影方向识别出地下水开发程度、人口密度、人均水资源占有量、单位GDP耗水量、生态用水率是对承载力影响较大的指标。根据承载力评价结果,制定了从翁贡乌拉苏木阿日宝拉格水源地调水至新宝拉格镇的水源调配方案,有助于缓解新宝拉格镇及宝格达苏木的供水压力。本成果可为镶黄旗水资源规划提供科学依据,也可为其它类似地区的水资源管理提供参考。Xianghuang Banner is located in the semi-arid pastoral area,and the water supply of some areas can not meet the needs of economic development,and the water resources transfer project was urged to plan based on the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.According to the characteristics of water resources utilization,an evaluation indexes system was constructed based on the projection pursuit model.The results show that:(1)The water resources carrying capacity of Xianghuang Banner is weak,and Wenggongwula Sumu is better than Xinbaolage Town,which is the weakest area of water resources carring capacity.(2)The degree of groundwater development,population density,water resources per capita,water consumption per unit of GDP and ecological water consumption rate have the great influence on water carrying capacity.Based on the evaluation results,the water resources transfer project was made for water transfer from Wenggongwula Sumu to Xinbaolage Town,which can help to relieve water supply stress of both areas.The results can provide the scientific basis of water resources regulation plan for Xianghuang Banner,and also provide reference for water resources management in other similar areas.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 水源配置 投影寻踪模型 镶黄旗 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]