能源、经济与环境协调发展的最优政策设计——基于CGE模型的实证研究  

Optimal Policy Design for Coordinated Development of Energy Economy and Environment:Based on CGE Model

作　　者：邱立新[1] 徐海涛 QIU Lixin;XU Haitao(School of Economics and Management, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266061, China)

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学经济与管理学院,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2018年第5期78-89,共12页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BJYO18)

摘　　要：针对我国现阶段能源环境与经济发展的突出矛盾,构建基于KAYA等式和CGE模型的中国能源-经济-环境混合模型,模拟研究不同政策变量调整对能源经济结构变化的敏感程度及各变量对二氧化碳减排成本的有效性。结果表明,第二产业总额占GDP比重的调整对能源及环境的影响较为显著,且变量呈现高敏感度,边际减排成本呈递增趋势;出口贸易总额占GDP比重的下调对经济的负面影响较大,且由于对能源及环境数据的低敏感性,其边际减排成本呈递减趋势;能源效率的提高对能源及环境改善最为显著,且不同能源技术对同一政策变量的敏感程度不同。在模拟分析的基础上给出多种优化组合策略,并据此提出如下政策建议:一是制定能源环境政策时应统筹兼顾,以经济政策为主、技术政策为辅,实现经济与环境的协调发展;二是政策实施需要循序渐进,避免减排成本过度波动、增加减排成本及难度;三是政策制定应因地制宜,经济发达地区应承担更多的减排义务,经济欠发达地区在环境承载能力范围内优先发展经济。In China,the contradiction between energy consumption and economic growth becomes more and more severe.In view of this situation,the study has constructed a Chinese Energy-Economy-Environment CGE model based on Kaya equation.First,the study quantified the effect degree of analog variable on sensitivity of energy economic structure and cost effectiveness of emission reduction.Then the study put forward some optimum combination scheme based on the research results.The results show that lowering the proportion of industrial structure will cause a positive impact on energy environment,and because of a high sensitivity on energy environment,the marginal abatement cost on industrial structure presents an increasing trend;lowering the degree of foreign trade has a negative effect on economy,and the marginal abatement cost on foreign trade presents a downward trend due to a low sensitivity on energy environment;increasing energy efficiency has an obvious positive effect on energy environment,and different energy efficiency has a different influence on a same variable.According to the combined strategy,we should adjust policy to the local conditions,the developed area should undertake more obligations of emissions-reduction and a high priority should be given to the economic development of the developing area.

关 键 词：可计算的一般均衡模型 政策模拟 卡雅恒等式 能源经济环境 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]