黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型应用评价  

Evaluation of Potato Late Blight Forecasting Model in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：王贵江[1] 吕典秋[2] 闵凡祥[2] WANG Guijiang;LU Dianqiu;MIN Fanxiang(Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150086,China;Virus-free Seedling Research Institute,Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150086,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省农业科学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150086 [2]黑龙江省农业科学院植物脱毒苗木研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150086

出　　处：《中国马铃薯》2018年第6期358-366,共9页Chinese Potato Journal

基　　金：黑龙江省马铃薯产业技术协同创新体系项目(HNWJZTX201701);黑龙江省科技攻关重大项目(YC2015D003);科技部国际科技合作计划项目(2014DFG32260);国家重点研发计划项目课题(2018YFD0200803)

摘　　要：马铃薯晚疫病是世界马铃薯生产上一种毁灭性病害,化学防治是控制马铃薯晚疫病最有效和最简单的方法。但是,化学防治存在用药不及时和过度施药的问题,采用马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型可以有效解决这个问题。应用黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型,对马铃薯晚疫病发生进行了预测,并与丹麦NegFry模型、每7 d施药和每10 d施药处理比较。黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型处理、丹麦NegFry模型处理和每7 d施药处理与对照相比在病害防治效果方面差异显著,黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型处理与丹麦NegFry模型处理和每7 d施药处理相比不显著。采用黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型与实际病害发生拟合度达95%。黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型与丹麦NegFry模型处理、每7 d施药处理、每10 d施药处理相比,减少杀菌剂使用次数1～3次。与空白对照相比,增产48.24%,小薯率降低5.63个百分点,烂薯率降低4.52个百分点,增加纯收入12 090元/hm^2。所以,黑龙江省马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型与丹麦NegFry模型和每7 d防治处理达到同等防治效果,且降低农药使用量,可及时指导晚疫病田间防治工作。Potato late blight is the most destructive disease for potato production in the world.Fungicide application is considered as the most effective and common used measure for the control of potato late blight.However,there are the problems of untimely administration and excessive application of fungicide.Potato late blight forecast model is an effective solution to these problems.The purposes of this study were to apply Heilongjiang Forecasting model(FM)for late blight control in Heilongjiang Province,and compare the control results with those of Denmark NegFry model(FN),and the treatments of one week fungicide application(FW)and ten days fungicide application(FT).FM,FN and FW were significantly higher than control for disease control,but no significance was found in FM,FN and FW.The prediction model of FM was fitted to the actual disease by95%.Fungicide application was reduced by1-3times,when based on FM compared with FN,FW and FT.Compared with control,tuber yield was increased by48.24%,small-sized tuber percentage decreased by5.63percentage points,rotten tuber percentage deceased by4.52percentage points,and net income increased by12090Yuan/ha.FM achieved the same results for late blight control as FN and FW did,but reduced fungicide usage,therefore,it could be used for timely guidance for field prevention and control of late blight.

关 键 词：马铃薯晚疫病 预测预报 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学]