经济政策不确定性与创新产出——来自21个国家和地区的经验证据  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Innovation Output——Empirical Evidence from 21 Countries and Regions

作　　者：韩亮亮[1] 佟钧营 马东山[1] Han Liangliang;Tong Junying;Ma Dongshan(Business School,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学商学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2019年第1期11-18,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"东北老工业基地国有企业混合所有制改革中的公司治理问题研究"(项目编号:15BGL077);国家自然科学基金青年项目"地方官员晋升;资源配置与企业扩张行为研究"(项目编号:71602082);辽宁省哲学社会科学规划基金项目"辽宁加快发展高端装备制造业的思路与对策"(项目编号:L10BJL028)

摘　　要：本文利用2010～2017年全球创新指数(GII)和经济政策不确定性指数均涵盖的21个国家和地区相关数据,对经济政策不确定性与创新产出关系进行了实证研究。研究发现,经济政策不确定性越高,国家或地区的创新产出水平越低。这表明经济政策不确定性程度的提高抑制了国家或地区的创新产出;进一步研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性的提高,导致国家或地区的商标等无形资产产出、创意产品与服务等显著减少。另外,从经济政策不确定性与影响创新产出主要因素的交互结果发现,经济体的人力资本投资与开发因素能够显著降低经济政策不确定性对创新产出的负向作用。This paper empirically studies the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and economic innovation output.The study finds that the higher the uncertainty of economic policy,the lower the innovation output level of the economy.This indicates that the degree of uncertainty of economic policy inhibits the innovation output of the economy.Further research shows that as the economic policy uncertainty of the economy increases,the output of intangible assets such as trademarks of the economy,and creative products and services are significantly reduced.In addition,from the economic policy uncertainty and interaction of the main factors of influence the innovation output results show that,the human capital investment and the development of the economy factors can significantly reduce the uncertainty of economic policy negative effects on innovation output.So the government should take a variety of measures to reduce the uncertainty of economic policy.Continuous strengthening of human capital investment and development is an important strategic measure to resolve the uncertainty of economic policy.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 创新产出 全球创新指数 人力资本投资与开发 创新抑制假说 研发投入 

分 类 号：F402.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.4