“深时”古气候对现代全球变暖及不确定性的启示  

Paleoclimate implication for the global warming and its uncertainties

作　　者：魏军晓 岑况[1] WEI Junxiao;CEN Kuang(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《自然杂志》2018年第6期451-458,共8页Chinese Journal of Nature

摘　　要：为了客观评价当前全球变暖的原因和不确定性因素,厘清影响全球变暖的主要因素,分析了"深时"(前第四纪)时期的古大气成分、古温度等气候参数和极端气候事件,同时还总结出当前全球变暖中7个不确定性因素。分析指出,研究第四纪以来的气候变化尤其是当前全球变暖,首先应该与"深时"古气候有机结合为一体;其次应该考虑大气圈-水圈-生物圈-土壤圈-岩石圈之间的耦合和反馈,而太阳活动、地球轨道变化等地外因素也不能忽略;再次,在不否认人类活动对当前气候造成重大影响的同时,也需正视当前全球变暖过程中存在的诸多不确定性因素;最后,对中国二氧化碳减排和应对全球变暖提出对策建议,指出坚持"共同但有区别的责任"的国际谈判原则的重要性。Main factors that affect global warming are clarified to objectively evaluate the current causes and the uncertainties associated with global warming.Various climatic parameters,such as extreme weather events,paleo-atmospheric composition,and paleo-temperature during the“deep time”(pre-Quaternary)period as well as seven uncertainties with respect to the current global warming,are analyzed.It is necessary to analyze the climate change that has occurred since the Quaternary,especially the current global warming,from a holistic geological history process.In addition,the interaction among the atmosphere,hydrosphere,biosphere,pedosphere,and lithosphere should be considered.The mutual coupling,cause-and-effect feedback,and multi-angle and multi-disciplinary techniques should be employed to analyze global warming.Furthermore,the solar activities,earth orbit changes,and other such extraterrestrial factors should be considered.Although human activities have a major impact on global warming,the contribution of natural factors should be quantified.Finally,various countermeasures and suggestions for CO2 reduction and for responding to the global warming situation in China are presented,and the importance of upholding the principle of“common but differentiated responsibilities”while engaging in international climate negotiations is highlighted.

关 键 词：全球变暖 不确定性 深时 自然因素 人类活动 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]