安徽省旱涝灾害及其对农业胁迫变化  

Drought-flood Hazards in Anhui Province and Variations of Their Stress on Agriculture

作　　者：杜张颖 陈松林[1] DU Zhangying;CHEN Songlin(School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2018年第4期78-84,共7页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371145);福建省科技重大专项(2012NZ0002-1-5)

摘　　要：安徽省作为中国重要的农产品生产基地,其农业发展影响意义重大。通过分析旱涝灾害对农业发展的影响,为防灾减灾保护粮食安全提供参考依据。根据2005—2015年安徽省各地市旱涝灾害相关数据,计算安徽省受灾系数和胁迫指数,并运用ArcGIS标注农业胁迫指数的重心位置,以此分析旱涝灾害空间特征及其对农业胁迫的影响。结果表明:(1)安徽省旱涝灾害受灾率较高,旱灾平均受灾率高达13. 19%,涝灾平均受灾率为11. 31%。旱涝灾害受灾率的区域差异性较大,主要分布在淮北平原和江淮丘陵地区,而大别山区和皖南山区受灾率相对较小。(2)安徽省旱涝灾害对农业的胁迫指数空间分异明显,淮河以北地区、大别山区、皖南山区旱涝灾害胁迫指数相对较大,江淮地区和沿江以南地区受胁迫程度较轻。(3)2005—2015年,农业胁迫指数的重心集中在合肥和巢湖两市,除2007年、2009年、2013年之外集中于巢湖市,其他年份重心位置聚集在合肥市。安徽省粮食产量与农业胁迫指数显著负相关,根据胁迫指数测算阈值,划分为轻度(0. 58～0. 85)、中度(0. 86～1. 19)、重度(1. 20～1. 51)。(4)在不同尺度下,胁迫指数的阈值对旱涝灾害有比较稳定的反映。As an important production base of agricultural products in China,Anhui Province has a significant impact on agricultural development.According to the statistics of the drought-flood from2005to2015in the province,the study analyses spatial distribution of drought-flood hazards and the influence of agriculture stress using ArcGIS.It shows that drought-flood hazards affected coefficient is relatively high in the province,the average of drought affected coefficient is13.19%,the average of flood affected coefficient is11.31%.The hazards have obvious regional differences,concentrated in Huaibei Plain and Jianghuai Region,the drought-flood hazards affected coefficient is relatively small in Dabie Mountains and Mountainous Area in its south.The agriculture stress index of the province has obvious spatial differentiation,it is reactively higher in the northern of Huaibei Area,Dabie Mountains and Mountainous Area in the south of Anhui,and lower in the eastern of Jianghuai and the southern of Yangtze River.During2005to2015,the center of gravity of agriculture stress index is focus on Hefei and Chaohu.The grain yield of the province was negatively correlated with the agricultural stress index.According to the measurement threshold of the stress index,the province was divided into mild(0.58-0.85),moderate(0.86-1.19)and severe(1.20-1.51)parts.Under different scales,the threshold of stress index has a relatively stable response to drought and flood disasters.

关 键 词：旱涝灾害 时空特征 粮食产量 农业胁迫指数 安徽省 

分 类 号：S11[农业科学—农业基础科学]