影响子宫颈扩张球囊引产成功的多因素Logistic回归分析  

Multi Factor Logistic Regression Analysis of Influencing Factors on Successful Application of Balloon Catheter for Induction of Labor

作　　者：王统菲 张延珍[1] WANG Tongfei;ZHANG Yanzhen(Department of Obstetric and Gynecology,The Affiliated Union Hospital of Fujian University,Fuzhou Fujian 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建医科大学附属协和医院妇产科,福建福州350001

出　　处：《中国卫生标准管理》2018年第24期28-31,共4页China Health Standard Management

摘　　要：目的探讨影响子宫颈扩张球囊引产成功的因素,并建立预测效果的Logistic回归模型。方法回顾性分析172例使用子宫颈扩张球囊引产的孕妇的病例资料,并采用Logistic回归分析年龄、身高、体质量、体质量指数、孕期增长体质量、孕次、产次、孕龄、宫高、腹围、胎先露衔接、宫颈Bishop评分、新生儿体质量、脐带因素及引产指征等各项因素对引产成功的影响。结果 Logistic回归分析显示产次与引产成功呈正相关,而新生儿体质量、可疑羊水过少和胎盘功能减退与引产成功呈负相关,以此建立的Logistic回归模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.743,最佳诊断阈值为0.739,其相对应的敏感度为82.4%,特异度为55.6%。结论产次、新生儿体质量、可疑羊水过少和胎盘功能减退可作为球囊引产效果的预测指标,有助于减少人为干预终止妊娠和提高引产成功率。Objective To investigate the influencing factors and establish a logistic regression modle for predicting successful labor induction with balloon catheter.Methods 172 cases of pregnant women who underwent labor induction with disposable balloon cervical dilators were retrospectively analyzed.Factors including age,body height,body weight,body mass index,weight gained during pregnancy,gravidity,parity,gestational age,fundal height,abdominal circumference,fetal presentation,the Bishop-score,neonatal weight,umbilical cord factors and indicators of labor induction were included into the Logistic regression analysis to evaluate their effects on successful labor induction.Results The Logistic regression analysis showed the significant positive factor for labor induction was parity,while the significant negative factors were neonatal weight,suspective oligohydramnios and placental insufficiency.With these influencing factors,a regression model was established,and its area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.743.The diagnostic threshold was 0.739,with a sensitivity of 82.4%and a specificity of 55.6%.Conclusion The parity,neonatal weight,suspective oligohydramnios and placental insufficiency can be used as predictive indice for the effect of labor induction,which is beneficial to reduce artificial intervetion to teminate pregnany and to improve the success rate of labor induction.

关 键 词：子宫颈扩张球囊 引产 Logistic回归分析 影响因素 产次 新生儿体重 羊水过少 

分 类 号：R714[医药卫生—妇产科学]