“一带一路”大型基建项目对城市承载力影响评价模型——基于双重差分法的计量分析  

The Evaluation Model of Impact of B&R Large-scale Infrastructure Projects on Urban Carrying Capacity:Econometric Analysis Based on Difference-in-difference

作　　者：郑丽霞 Zheng Lixia(School of Management,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China;Graduate School,Aichi University,Nagoya Aichi 453-8777,Japan)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学管理学院,天津300134 [2]日本爱知大学大学院

出　　处：《未来与发展》2018年第12期27-33,共7页Future and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"地方政府PPP项目管理能力评价体系及提升路径"(71704086);天津市教委科研计划项目"项目导向型组织对创新项目绩效的影响研究"(161070);天津商业大学新进人员科研启动项目"创新项目团队异质性对绩效的影响研究"(R161103)

摘　　要：随着"一带一路"的深入,我国与诸多国家开展了大型基建项目的合作。开展大型基建项目对城市承载力影响的定量评价,分析其对东道国城市经济、社会、生态承载力的影响,是政府、社会和企业良好沟通、构建信任和达成共识的基础。基于城市可持续发展理论,构建大型基建项目与城市承载力的配置关系模型、整体评价模型与分维度DID计量经济模型,并对模型应用中需要注意的问题进行说明。不仅是对现有项目评价研究的补充,而且能够为"一带一路"大型基建项目决策提供借鉴。With the deepening of “the Belt and Road”,China has cooperated with many countries on large-scale infrastructure projects.Quantitative evaluation and analysis of the impact of large-scale infrastructure projects on urban carrying capacity of host country,including economic,social and ecological carrying capacity,are foundation of communication,trust and consensus among governments,society and enterprises.Based on the theory of urban sustainable development,it constructs three models such as the configuration relationship model between large-scale infrastructure projects and urban carrying capacity,the overall evaluation model of large-scale infrastructure projects according to carrying capacity of cities,and the fractal dimension DID econometric model.Finally,it pays attention on the problems of model application.It is not only a complement to the research of evaluation,but also important reference for decisionmaking of B&R large-scale infrastructure projects.

关 键 词：项目评价模型 城市承载力 大型基建项目 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]