基于高精度房屋、人口数据的地震压埋人员和紧急搜救区评估模型研究  

Assessment Models of Trapped-victim in Earthquake & Emergency Rescue Area Based on High-precision Building and Population Data

作　　者：白仙富[1,2] 戴雨芡[1,3] 叶燎原 李春 BAI Xian-fu;DAI Yu-qian;YE Liao-yuan;LI Chun(College of Tourism & Geography Sciences,Yunnan Normal University,Yunnan Kunming 650092,China;Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Yunnan Kunming 650224,China;Earthquake Administration of Xishan District,Yunnan Kunming 650118,China;College of Mathematics,Honghe University,Yunnan Mengzi 661199,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [3]昆明市西山区防震减灾局,云南昆明650118 [4]红河学院数学学院,云南蒙自661100

出　　处：《防灾减灾学报》2018年第4期1-12,共12页Journal of Disaster Prevention And Reduction

基　　金：地震滑坡道路中断风险评估技术研究(2018ZX03);大中城市地震灾害情景构建重点专项(2016QJGJ09)共同资助

摘　　要：为了在地震应急服务管理中能快速计算因房屋倒塌造成人员压埋数量和紧急搜救区空间分布的准确信息,以鲁甸地震和彝良地震为研究样本,建立基于房屋、人口数据的地震压埋人员和紧急搜救区评估模型。根据评估模型反演鲁甸地震因房屋倒塌造成的压埋人员总数为396人,比实际伤亡少86人,误差率为17.50%;评估模型反演彝良地震因房屋倒塌造成的压埋人员总数为15人,比实际伤亡多3人,误差率为25.00%。根据模型计算得到鲁甸地震共有8个紧急搜救区,紧急搜救区面积占地震灾区总面积的0.37%,这8个紧急搜救区内因房屋倒塌造成的实际人员死亡306人,占因房屋倒塌实际死亡总数的63.75%。从反演结果看,评估模型对地震应急救援响应等级启动和救援力量合理部署的数据需求有较好的求解能力。In order to rapid calculate the trapped personnel location and effectively judge emergency rescue area for improving earthquake emergency response, we take Ludian earthquake date and Yiliang earthquake date as samples to building the assessment models of trapped-victim caused by building collapse in earthquake & emergency rescue area based on Km-grid building and Km-gridpopulation data. Results showed that, there were 396 people trapped in the collapsed buildings in Ludian earthquake and there were 15 people trapped in the collapsed buildings in Yiliang earthquake assessed by our models. The true casualty caused by caused by collapsed buildings were 482 in Ludian earthquake and 12 in Yiliang earthquake. We found that the trapped personnel number calculated by our models is nearly the count brought on death by housing destroyed in during earthquake. The reach results also showed that, there were 8 emergency rescue areas in Ludian earthquake according to the evaluate models. There were 306 people lost their lives on the 8 emergency rescue points, on the other hand, the acreage of emergency rescue area account for only 0.37% of the total earthquake-stricken area. To encounter the earthquake emergence disaster service, the assessment models of people trapped in earthquake & emergency rescue area which we had built should product more precision and correctly information.

关 键 词：地震压埋人员 紧急搜救区 公里格网数据 评估模型 

分 类 号：P315.69[天文地球—地震学]