聊城地区强对流天气预报模型的对流参数选取研究  

Study on choosing convection parameters in strong convective weather forecast model of Liaocheng area

作　　者：史纬恒 王磊 韩飞 于文杰 刘有新 SHI Weiheng;WANG Lei;HAN Fei;YU Wenjie;LIU Youxin(No.61741 Army of PLA,80 Unit,Liaocheng 252000;No.95920 Army of PLA,59 Unit,Hengshui 253801)

机构地区：[1]解放军71901部队80分队 [2]中国人民解放军95920部队59分队

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2018年第6期549-557,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

摘　　要：利用2011—2015年6—8月聊城机场逐日逐时常规地面观测资料和邢台站、章丘站逐日常规高空探测资料,计算得到39个对流参数。在对流参数与强对流天气样本相关系数的显著性检验基础上,根据对流参数在强对流天气样本和无强对流天气样本中值域分布特征,采用盒状图和技巧评分的方法选取了具有预报意义的章丘站12个对流参数和邢台站8个对流参数。通过对不同类型对流参数的指示作用进行分析,根据各对流参数在各月强对流天气样本中的阈值,确定了聊城地区强对流天气预报的判定指标。采用隶属函数转换法,建立聊城地区夏季强对流天气预报模型,经实况拟合检验,准确率达60%以上,效果较好。Thirty-nine convection parameters are calculated by using daily routine upper-air sounding data from the Xingtai and Zhangqiu aerological observation stations and hourly observation data from the Liaocheng Airport from June to August during 2011-2015.Based on the significance test of the correlation coefficient between convection parameters and strong convective weather samples,as well as the analysis of numerical distribution of convection parameters in the strong convective weather samples and the non-strong convective weather samples,12 convection parameters at Zhangqiu station and 8 convection parameters at Xingtai station are finally selected by the methods of boxplot and skill scores.Through analyzing the indication to the strong convective weather events of different types of convection parameters,and according to the different thresholds of convection parameters in each month,different criteria for the strong convective weather are determined respectively.Thus,the strong convective weather forecast model for summer short-time heavy rains in Liaocheng is established by the membership function conversion method.The fitting test and forecasting test of the forecast model are verified with a good result in which the accuracy rate is over 60%.

关 键 词：强对流天气 对流参数 预报模型 聊城 技巧评分 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]