西部地区对外贸易与环境污染关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析  

Study on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Environmental Pollution in Western China——Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：薛蕾[1] 唐敏 Xue Lei;Tang Min

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院,成都611130 [2]四川省社会科学院研究生学院,成都610072

出　　处：《中国西部》2018年第6期88-97,共10页Western China

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目“健全城乡发展一体化的要素平等交换体制机制研究”(14ZDA033);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“西部地区可持续发展重大问题研究”(JBK120506);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“新时代中国乡村振兴效率的空间溢出效应及路径研究”(XZX18008)

摘　　要：本文利用西部地区12个省(自治区、直辖市)1997~2015年的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,采用脉冲响应函数、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验等分析方法,实证分析了对外贸易与环境污染之间的双向动态作用关系。结果表明:环境污染冲击可以促进对外贸易和出口而阻碍进口,但对外贸易冲击对环境污染的影响不定且呈现出明显的周期性;进口依存度对环境污染变动的贡献率最高,出口依存度居中,外贸依存度最低,而环境污染对对外贸依存度变动、出口依存度变动和进口依存度变动的方差贡献率依次递减,但其解释能力在不断增强;环境污染是对外贸易依存度和出口依存度的格兰杰原因;出口依存度和进口依存度不是环境污染的格兰杰原因。Using the panel data of12provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in the western region from1997to2015and building PVAR model by using the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis method and the Granger Causality test,this article analyzes the bidirectional dynamic action relationship between foreign trade and environmental pollution.The empirical results show that:the impact of environmental pollution can promote foreign trade and export and hinder import,but the impact of foreign trade on environmental pollution is uncertain and obviously periodic;import dependence takes the highest contribution to environmental pollution changes,the middle is export dependence and foreign trade dependence is the lowest.However,the variance contribution rate of environmental pollution to the change of foreign trade dependence,export dependence and import dependence is decreasing successively,but its explanatory ability is constantly increasing;environmental pollution is the Granger cause to foreign trade dependence and export dependence;while export dependence and import dependence are not the Granger cause to environmental pollution.

关 键 词：对外贸易 环境污染 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] X22[经济管理—产业经济]