2017/18榨季中国食糖生产形势分析与2018/19榨季展望  

Domestic Sugar Production Situation in 2017/18 Crushing Season and Its Prospect for 2018/19 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 王新超[1] Liu Xiaoxue;Wang Xinchao(Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第11期40-46,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部;财政部国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"

摘　　要：2017/18榨季,因印度、泰国和欧盟大幅增产,全球糖业供给过剩严重,国际糖价以震荡下行为主,最低跌至9.83美分/Ib;国内糖价以下跌为主,在5 200～6 500元/t运行。随着种植面积回升,在适宜气候和良好单产的推动下, 2017/18榨季中国食糖产量增加11%至1 031.04万t。2017/18榨季,因种植收益提高蔗农种植意愿明显增强,甜菜因种植成本榨季间波幅小单位面积利润更稳定,生产的惯性带来糖料生产和制糖产能扩张较快;从产销率来看,主产区累计产销率明显高于2016/17榨季,虽然主产区制糖企业加快销售的策略明显,销售收入却仍大幅下降,平均售价较上榨季下滑1 032元/t,无法弥补生产成本,甘蔗收购价格同比上升使得农户收益向好,但部分糖企亏损使糖业生存呈现脆弱性。同时,贸易保障措施的实施,使得正规进口糖可控。展望2018/19榨季,农户收益较好推动糖料种植面积继续回升,预计全国食糖产量约为1 055万t左右,淀粉糖替代增量有限,尽管产不足需,考虑进口糖和走私糖的情况下,中国糖业大概率供给过剩。走私糖入境和储备糖投放是影响国内糖业的较大因素,而国际糖市供给过剩的程度和糖醇比价关系影响着糖价走势。In 2017/18 crushing season, due to the substantial increase in production in India, Thailand and the EU, the global sugar industry faced with a global supply glut. The international sugar price was fluctuating downward, hitting the lowest level of 9.83 cents per pound, while the operating range of domestic sugar price was from RMB 5 200 per ton to RMB 6 500 per ton with trend of mainly falling. With the increase in planting area, good weather conditions and satisfactory yield per unit area have boosted China’s sugar output to increase by 11 percent to 10.310 4 million tons in 2017/18 crushing season. In 2017/18 crushing season, because of higher returns, growers became more willingly to grow sugarcane, and the profit per unit area of beet was more stable because of the small fluctuation of planting cost during crushing season, so the inertia of production led to the rapid expansion of sugar crops production and sugar production capacity. In terms of sales-output ratio, the cumulative sales-output ratio in the main producing areas in 2017/18 crushing season was clearly higher than that in 2016/17 crushing season. The sugar-making enterprises have adopted strategy for accelerating sales in the main production areas, but the sales revenue dropped sharply. The average selling price has fallen by RMB1 032 per ton compared with the previous crushing season, which could not make up for the production costs. The purchasing price of sugarcane has risen year on year, which made farmers’ income better. However, some sugar-making enterprises’ losses have made the sugar industry vulnerably survive. Meanwhile, the implementation of trade guarantee measures made the regular import of sugar controllable. Looking forward to2018/19 crushing season, the increased growers’ income will continue to help expand the planting area of sugar crops, and the domestic sugar production will be about 10.55 million tons. The increment of starch sugar substitution will be limited. Although the production is insufficient, considering the i

关 键 词：食糖 甘蔗 甜菜 生产形势 产量 价格 贸易保障措施 储备糖投放 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]