北极东北航线油船运输经济性分析  

Economic Analysis of Crude Oil Tanker Using Arctic Northeast Sea Route

作　　者：高健 邓超风 付健 徐鸿志 郝金凤 强兆新 石俊令 GAO Jian;DENG Chaofeng;FU Jian;XU Hongzhi;HAO Jinfeng;QIANG Zhaoxin;SHI Junling(Shandong Shipping Corporation, Qingdao 266000, China;China Ship Design & Research Center Co., Ltd., Beijing 100000, China)

机构地区：[1]山东海运股份有限公司,山东青岛266000 [2]中船重工船舶设计研究中心有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《中国航海》2018年第4期127-130,共4页Navigation of China

基　　金：工业和信息化部高技术船舶科研项目"极地油船关键技术研究"

摘　　要：针对对北极资源和市场供需分析,依据海冰环境和通航趋势,建立东北航线ARC6冰级油船运输模式,采用航线里程、单位航次成本和必要运费率等进行东北航线和北极-苏伊士航线油船运输经济性比较,以净现值和内部收益率等分析ARC6冰级油船的经济性,并展望东北航线前景。研究结果表明:东北航线航程缩短、全年航次增加,单位航次成本和必要运费率偏高,破冰护航船收费阻碍商业通航,ARC6冰级油船的期租租金在2. 4万美元/d以上,得出东北航线全年油船运输暂时没有经济性优势,但气温上升和商业活动的持续,东北航线的成本不断降低,长期来看东北航线具有可行性的结论。The transport mode of the ARC6grade oil tanker is established based on the analysis of resources in the Arctic region and the supply and demand in the China market.The economy of crude oil tanker using Arctic Northeast Sea Route(NSR)is compared with that of Arctic-Suez route according to the route mileage,unit voyage cost,Necessary Freight Rate(NFR).The economy of ARC6grade ice oil tanker is discussed from the angle of Net Present Value and internal rate of return.The prospect of the NSR is predicted.The research shows that the NSR shortens voyage distance obviously,therefore,the year voyage number can increase,but the unit voyage cost and the NFR are higher;Icebreaker charges will obstruct commercial navigation and an ARC6grade oil tanker rent must be more than24000USD/d to get return on investment.The conclusion is that there is no advantage in economy for crude oil tanker using NSR for the time being.However,as the climate becomes even warmer and the development of the commercial activities may develop,the cost of using the NSR will likely go down,and the crude oil tanker using NSR may be feasible someday.

关 键 词：北极 东北航线 油船 经济性 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济] U695.28[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]