为什么区域政策越来越重视“抢人”——基于一个拓展的线性模型研究  

Why Regional Policies Pay More Attention to “Robbing People”?Based on an Extended Linear Model

作　　者：李文宇[1,2] 陈健生 刘洪铎[4] LI Wen-yu;CHEN Jian-sheng;LIU Hong-duo

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学 [2]中共四川省委政策研究室 [3]西南财经大学经济学院 [4]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2019年第1期98-108,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十三五"规划青年项目"逆全球化背景下外部政策不确定性对广东参与全球价值链分工的影响及对策研究"(项目编号:GD18YYJ04)

摘　　要：当前,区域发展越来越重视人的因素,"抢人"成为区域政策制定的热点。我们建立了一个拓展的空间分析框架,研究发现:居民迁移决策因素将从根本上改变空间经济结构的发展趋势,突破由本地市场效应的作用下,产业向发达地区单向集聚的趋势,成为走向区域产业扩散的重要力量。而且,在发展前期,以规模经济、贸易成本等为代表的市场力量将逐步扩大区域空间差距;在发展后期,居民迁移决策所代表的个人力量将推动区域空间差距缩小。在实证检验后我们发现,居民迁移决策的因素都与空间经济结构有显著关联,消费水平差异将缩小区域空间差距,工资和房价差异将扩大区域空间差距,这进一步支撑了理论模型的结论。我们的研究为后发区域发展提供了新的思路,即应进一步松绑区域人口政策,更加关注居民迁移决策和偏好,致力于构建适宜的生活环境条件,形成新的区域竞争优势。At present, the regional development has paid more and more attention to the factor of human beings, and it has become a hot spot in the formulation of regional policy to snatch talents. We have established an extended spatial analysis framework. The results show resident migration decision will fundamentally change the development trend of spatial economic structure, break the trend of one-way agglomeration of industries to developed regions under the influence of local market effect, and become an important force of industrial diffusion. Moreover, in the early stage of development, market forces, such as economies of scale and trade costs, will gradually widen regional spatial disparities, and in the later stages of development, personal forces represented by resident migration decision will promote regional spatial disparities. The empirical results show resident migration decision is significantly related to spatial economic structure. Consumption gap will narrow regional spatial disparity, and wage and housing price gap will widen regional spatial disparity, which further supports the conclusion of theoretical model. Therefore, we provide a new idea for the development of backward areas that is to focus on the future regional population policy should be further loosened, pay more attention to the decision-making and preferences of residents to migrate, to build appropriate living environment conditions, and to gain new regional competitive advantage.

关 键 词：空间经济居 民迁移决策 人口流动 市场规模 线性模型 区域发展 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]