民办养老机构“低入住率”的原因分析:来自市、县两级的证据  

Analysis on the Causes of “Low Occupancy Rate” of Private Old-Age Institutions:Evidence from Municipal and County Level

作　　者：朱凤梅 ZHU Fengmei(Ministry of Civil Affairs Policy Research Center,Beijing,100006,China)

机构地区：[1]民政部政策研究中心,北京100006

出　　处：《人口学刊》2019年第1期89-100,共12页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:长期照护服务的供给研究(17BJY216);全国老龄政策理论研究项目:医养结合实施现状和发展策略研究(QLB2018A026)

摘　　要：近年来,在养老服务社会化提供过程中,民办养老机构"低入住率"现象引发广泛关注。本文利用2016年中国社会科学院经济研究所课题组全国养老机构问卷调查数据,基于理论假说,选择人口特征、服务价格、服务内容、财政补贴和机构特征5个维度共14个变量,包括老龄化率、每百张床位人员配置、是否提供医疗服务、是否提供上门服务、入住老人月收费、有无财政补贴、运营时长、房屋使用来源等作为解释变量,以养老机构入住率作为被解释变量构建多元回归分析模型,试图对民办养老机构的"低入住率"之谜做出解释。实证结果显示,每百张床位人员配置、运营时长、有无财政补贴以及房屋使用来源对民办养老机构入住率影响显著,但并未发现以自理老人收费和不能自理老人收费两个指标来衡量的养老服务价格对入住率产生显著的影响,即"价格决定论"未被证实。进一步分析发现那些之前享受过财政补贴但当前不再享受财政补贴的民办养老机构与无任何财政补贴的民办养老机构在入住率上并无统计学意义上的显著差异,也就是说一旦民办养老机构不享受财政补贴,其入住率存在下降的可能。研究结论表明民办养老机构低入住率主要影响因素有人员配置比例、运营时长和财政补贴的持续性。可见,无论是基于财政补贴政策还是鼓励社会力量提供养老服务的方式都需要进一步建立长效的补偿机制和运营机制。In recent years,the phenomenon of"low occupancy rate"in private nursing institutions has aroused widespread concern in the process of providing social services for the aged.Based on the data of"Nursing Home Survey"conducted by Economic Institute of CASS and theoretical hypothesis,this paper chooses 14 variables from five dimensions of population characteristics,service price,service content,financial subsidy and institutional characteristics as explanatory variables,and the occupancy rate of pension institutions as explanatory variables,including aging rate,the staffing allocation of each hundred beds,whether to provide medical services,whether to provide door-to-door services,monthly fees for the elderly,whether there is financial subsidy,length of operation,sources of housing use and so on.The multiple regression analysis model tries to explain the mystery of"low occupancy rate"of private nursing institutions.The empirical results show that the staffing allocation of each hundred beds,the length of the operation,the financial subsidy and the use of the house have significant influence on the occupancy rate of the private institutions,but it is not found that the price of the aged service has a significant impact on the occupancy rate,that is,the"price determinism"has not been confirmed.Further analysis shows that there is no significant difference in occupancy rate between those private nursing institutions that have previously enjoyed financial subsidies but no longer enjoyed financial subsidies and those without any financial subsidies.That is to say,once private nursing institutions do not enjoy financial subsidies,their occupancy rate may be lower.The results show that the low occupancy rate of private nursing institutions is mainly due to the low proportion of staffing,the length of operation and the sustainability of financial subsidies.Therefore,both the current financial subsidy policy and the way to encourage social forces to provide care services for the aged need to further establish a long-term comp

关 键 词：民办养老机构 入住率 每百张床位人员配置 运营时长 财政补贴 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]