工业产业结构与工业劳动力回流机制研究  

Research on the Industrial Structure and the Return Mechanism of Industrial Labor Force

作　　者：刘子玉 肖静[3] LIU Zi-yu;XIAO Jing(Jilin Engineering Normal University,Changchun Jilin 130052,China;Changchun Sci-Tech University,Jilin Changchun 130600,China;School of management of Changchun University,Jilin Changchun 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林工程技术师范学院,吉林长春130025 [2]长春科技学院,吉林长春130600 [3]长春大学管理学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2018年第12期102-107,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：吉林省教育科学"十三五"规划课题(GH170983);吉林省教育科学"十三五"规划课题(GH170146);吉林省高等教育学会高教科研项目(JGJX2017C62);吉林省教育厅"十三五"社会科学项目(JJKH20180970SK)

摘　　要：劳动力回流即劳动力先流出后流入,是劳动力流动的一种表现形式。文章以工业为例,选择2005—2016年全国31个省、市、自治区工业数据,以剔除跨行业劳动力流动的规模以上工业企业从业人数与人口数之比的年增长值衡量工业劳动力流动,基于流出、流入两类数据,运用以揭示资本、劳动替代动态变化的变替代弹性生产函数为基础的面板数据对工业劳动力回流机制进行实证检验。研究结果表明,中西部地区工业产业结构升级吸纳工业劳动力回流。但同等情况下,工业劳动力更倾向于流入东部沿海地区。而部分地区工业比重较低,无法吸纳新增劳动力就业;或过分倚重重化工业,未能顺利实现产业结构升级转型;或淘汰落后和过剩产能导致劳动力流入其他行业、地区。加之东部沿海地区、中西部地区持续吸纳劳动力流入,此类地区工业劳动力仍持续外流。准确把握工业产业结构与劳动力回流机制是增加产业政策设计针对性、提高"供给侧改革"质量与效率的前提。The return of labor force is labor force first flows out and then flows into,it is a manifestation of labor mobility.This paper,taking industry as an example,chooses the industrial data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2005 to 2016 to measure the industrial labor flow of industrial enterprises in the ratio of the number of industrial enterprises to the number of industrial enterprises above the scale of cross industry labor flow.Based on the outflow and inflow of the two types of data,it is used to reveal the capital and labor force.Based on the dynamic change of elasticity production function based panel data,we conduct an empirical test on the mechanism of industrial labor return.The results show that the upgrading of industrial structure in the central and western regions takes the back of industrial labor force.But under the same circumstances,industrial labor is more likely to flow into the eastern coastal areas.In some areas,the proportion of industry is low,it can not absorb the employment of new labor force,or overrely heavily on the heavy chemical industry,and can not smoothly realize the upgrading of industrial structure.Or the elimination of backward and excess capacity leads to the flow of labor into other industries and regions.In addition,the eastern coastal areas,the central and western regions continue to absorb labor inflow,industrial labor in such areas continue to outflow.Accurately grasping the industrial structure and labor return mechanism is the premise to increase the pertinence of industrial policy design and improve the quality and efficiency of the supply side reform.

关 键 词：产业结构 劳动力回流 劳动力流动 劳动替代 

分 类 号：F014.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9