基于贝叶斯网络的核心任务多因子影响估计方法  

Core Mission Multi-factors Impact Assessment Method Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：于靖 丁峰[1] 郭成昊[1] 黄鑫[1] YU Jing;DING Feng;GUO Chenghao;HUANG Xin(Science and Technology on Information Systems Engineering Laboratory,Nanjing 210007,China)

机构地区：[1]信息系统工程重点实验室,南京210007

出　　处：《指挥信息系统与技术》2018年第6期25-29,共5页Command Information System and Technology

基　　金：装备发展部"十三五"预研课题资助项目

摘　　要：未来战争中指挥信息系统将会遭受复杂多变的赛博攻击,现有方法无法准确评估赛博攻击对任务执行造成的影响程度,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的核心任务多因子影响估计方法。首先,根据系统内部调用关系,建立了系统对象依赖图,捕获攻击影响传播到其他对象的途径;然后,在系统对象依赖图基础上,构建了任务—任务功能—资源(MTA)映射关系,将赛博攻击影响与任务进行关联;最后,通过采集赛博攻击情况下的资源监测数据,利用贝叶斯网络进行任务影响估计,从而评估赛博攻击对任务造成影响的概率,为指挥员决策提供可靠依据。The command information system will suffer from the complex and changeable cyber attacks in the future.Existing methods can not accurately assess the impact of cyber attacks on mission execution.A core mission multi-factors impact assessment method based on Bayesian network is proposed.Firstly,a system object dependency graph is built based on the system internal call relationship,and it can capture the way of the attack effects propagation to other objects.Then,the mission-task-resource(MTA)mapping relationship is constructed based on the system object dependency graph,and it can associate the impact of cyber attacks with the mission progress.Finally,the Bayesian network is used to estimate the mission impact by collecting the resource monitoring data of cyber attacks,the probability of cyber attacks affecting the mission is evaluated,and it can provide a reliable basis for the commander’s decision.

关 键 词：任务影响估计 贝叶斯网络 系统对象依赖图 任务资源映射 

分 类 号：U283.4[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制] TP309[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]