基于v/C比的高速公路基本路段车辆碳排放预测模型研究  

A Prediction Model of Carbon Emission of Vehicles in Basic Expressway Sections Based on v/CRatio

作　　者：景立竹 许金良[1] 韩跃杰[1] 贾兴利[1] 刘江 JING Lizhu;XU Jinliang;HAN Yuejie;JIA Xingli;LIU Jiang(School of Highway,Chang′an University,Xi′an 710064,China;Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi′an 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,西安710064 [2]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2018年第6期98-105,共8页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0802208);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2017JQ5122)资助

摘　　要：为揭示高速公路基本路段交通流饱和度v/C比对于车辆二氧化碳排放(简称碳排放)水平的影响规律,以G3001西安绕城高速公路和G65W延西高速公路(西安—铜川段)为试验道路,以交通流数据采集以及实车油耗测试为基础,选用IPCC碳排放核算方法,将油耗数据转换成碳排放数据,采用SPSS回归分析的方法,针对高速公路基本路段v/C∈[0.15,1.25]的情况,分别建立适用于载重汽车和小客车的v/C比与碳排放率关系模型,并对模型预测结果的精确性进行了检验。研究表明,载重汽车和小客车的碳排放率都随着v/C比的增大做二次函数形式的变化;当高速公路基本路段v/C比为0.44和0.45时,载重汽车和小客车的碳排放率达到最低水平,分别为67.8kg/100km和17.3kg/100km;当高速公路基本路段v/C比超过0.96和0.87时,2种车型的碳排放水平将有可能对温室效应产生显著的负面影响;从节约车辆燃油、降低二氧化碳排放的角度出发,上述v/C比临界数值可以作为指导高速公路路段交通流控制、路段改扩建决策的参考指标。In order to study influences of rules of v/C ratios in basic expressway sections on carbon dioxide emission(referred to as carbon emission)levels of vehicles,G3001 Xi′an Loop Expressway and G65W Yanxi Expressway(from Xi′an to Tongchuan)are selected as test sections.Based on data of traffic flows and actual fuel consumption of vehicles,IPCC carbon accounting method is used to convert data of fuel consumption into carbon emission.Through SPSS regression analysis,prediction models of carbon emission rate of trucks and passenger cars are established respectively,and used in basic expressway sections under v/C∈[0.15,1.25].The accuracies of the prediction models are verified.The results show that carbon emission rates of trucks and passenger cars both change in line with v/C ratios in forms of quadratic functions.When the v/C ratio of a specific basic expressway section is 0.44 and 0.45,the carbon emission rates reach the lowest levels(67.8 kg/100 km for trucks and 17.3 kg/100 km for passenger cars).When the v/C ratio of a specific basic expressway section is more than 0.96 and 0.87,it possibly has significant adverse impacts on greenhouse effect.For saving fuel and reducing carbon emissions,thresholds of v/C ratio mentioned above can be used as reference indicators for traffic control and decision-making of reconstruction and expansion of expressways.

关 键 词：交通工程 碳排放 高速公路基本路段 v/C比 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]