基于可公度研究的东北地区洪水灾害预测  

Study on Commensurability-Based Flood Forecasting in the Northeast China Region

作　　者：彭卓越 张丽丽[2] 殷峻暹[2] 李文龙 王永峰 PENG Zhuoyue;ZHANG Lili;YIN Junxian;LI Wenlong;WANG Yongfeng(School of Hydraulic Energy and Power Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225100,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044,China;Fengman Hydropower Plant,State Grid Xinyuan Co.,Ltd,Jilin 132108,China;Fengman Dam Reconstruction Engineering Construction Bureau,Jilin 132108,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利与能源动力工程学院,江苏扬州225100 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044 [3]国网新源控股有限公司丰满发电厂,吉林吉林132108 [4]丰满大坝重建工程建设局,吉林吉林132108

出　　处：《人民黄河》2019年第1期28-33,36,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB036400)

摘　　要：鉴于东北地区重要的工农业地位及其洪水频发性带来的巨大损失,采用可公度式、有序网络结构图及蝴蝶结构图对东北地区的洪水进行预测。研究预测样本为东北地区1856年以来发生的特大洪水灾害年份,首先通过对时间序列的卡方检验,证明可公度的非偶然性;其次采用三元、五元、七元可公度模型对洪灾年份进行预测,并且用有序结构网络图和蝴蝶结构网络图进行佐证,结果不仅验证了2013年洪水年份的必然性,而且显示2017年东北地区发生洪水的可能性较大。Northeast China is one of the largest industry and agricultural bases in China,but frequent flooding brings huge losses to the people and country. In order to forecast floods in Northeast China,we used commensurablility forecasting techniques,ordered network structure chart and butterfly structure diagram. The prediction selected extraordinary flooding years which occurred in the Northeast China since 1856,we found that these years had a very strong degree of commensurability by chi-square test,indicating that commensurability was non-accidental. Then it used ternary,quinary and septenary commensurability calculation models for forecasting,along with ordered network structure chart and butterfly structure diagram. It verified the inevitability of flooding in 2013 and showed that the Northeast China region would be highly prone to flooding in 2017.

关 键 词：可公度 有序网络结构图 蝴蝶结构图 洪水预测 东北地区 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]