相关抽样技术在坝坡稳定可靠度分析中的应用  

Correlated Sampling Techniques and Its Application in Dam Slope Reliability Analysis

作　　者：范雪枫 孙启亮 吴震宇[1] 张瀚[1] 邹福华 FAN Xuefeng;SUN Qiliang;WU Zhenyu;ZHANG Han;ZOU Fuhua(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,College of Water Resources&Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Power China,Chengdu 610072,China;Qionglai Water Conservancy Bureau,Qionglai 611530,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065 [2]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072 [3]邛崃市水务局,四川邛崃611530

出　　处：《人民黄河》2019年第1期136-139,144,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109151)

摘　　要：高堆石坝坝坡可靠度分析需要考虑堆石料非线性强度指标互相关性的影响。与Rosenblueth法和FOSM相比,Monte Carlo法具有计算精度高、鲁棒性强的优点,但传统的Monte Carlo法不能直接对相关随机变量进行抽样模拟。提出了一种简便的相关抽样技术(CST),通过一系列独立的标准正态样本的线性组合生成相关随机变量的样本。将CST应用于Monte Carlo法,分析了某高堆石坝在地震荷载作用下的坝坡可靠度,结果表明:坝坡可靠度对堆石料非线性强度指标的互相关性较敏感,考虑互相关性后,坝坡可靠指标增大,失效概率减小。The influence of nonlinear strength index ofrockfill materials on reliability analysis of high rockfill dam should be considered. Compared with the Rosenblueth method and FOSM,the Monte Carlo method has the advantages of high calculation accuracy and strong robustness,but the traditional Monte Carlo method cannot directly sample the correlated random variables. This paper developed a simple Correlated Sampling Technique( CST),which generated samples of correlated random variables by a series of linear combination of independent standardized normal samples. The CST was applied to the Monte Carlo method to analyze the slope reliability of a high rockfill dam under the conditions of seismic load. The research shows that the slope reliability is sensitive to the cross correlation of nonlinear strength indexes of rockfill materials. After considering the cross correlation,the slope reliability index is increased and the failure probability decreased.

关 键 词：坝坡可靠度 堆石料 非线性强度指标 互相关性 抽样技术 Monte Carlo法 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]