2018年国内外宏观经济形势回顾及2019年预判  

2018 Review and 2019 Forecast on Global Macro-Economy

作　　者：赵小辉[1] 李霞[1] 任佳宁 傅培瑜 Zhao Xiaohui;Li Xia;Ren Jianing;Fu Peiyu(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工集团公司经济技术研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2019年第1期8-14,共7页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2018年特朗普政府实施"宽财政""紧货币"和贸易保护主义政策,给美国经济短期内带来利好,但对其他主要经济体的实体经济发展带来较大不利影响,世界经济快速复苏势头被中断。2019年世界经济面临的不确定性因素增多,世界经济增长下行风险加大,增速可能放缓至3.0%,低于2018年的3.1%。2018年中国深入推进供给侧结构性改革,稳妥应对中美经贸摩擦,经济保持较强韧性。2019年中国出口增长和投资增长前景整体偏弱,经济下行压力较大。中国将进一步加大减税降费、促进消费等政策力度,为经济发展提供坚实支撑,预计中国经济增速将由2018年的6.6%放缓至6.0%～6.5%。In 2018,Trump administration implemented the policies of fiscal easing,monetary tightening and trade protectionism,which has brought a short-term benefit to US economy,but a negative impact to other major economies,disruptive to rapid recovery of world economy.2019 will see more uncertainties and downside risks in world economy,with its growth rate expected to slide to 3.0%,down from 3.2%in 2018.China has deeply promoted supply-side structural reform in 2018 amid escalation of Sino-US trade friction,and its economy remains resilient.However,the overall outlook for China's export and investment growth will turn weak in 2019,depressed by further economic downturn.China is set to make more policy efforts to cut taxes and fees,and stimulate consumption,among others,to support economic development.It is expected that China's economic growth rate will fall somewhere between 6.0%and 6.5%,down from 6.6%in 2018.

关 键 词：2019年 世界经济 中国经济 经济政策 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]