一种基于易损性分析的空间碎片撞击风险评估方法  

A Risk Assessment Method for Space Debris Impact Based on Vulnerability Analysis

作　　者：周智炫[1] 柳森[1] 任磊生[1] 马兆侠[1] ZHOU Zhi-xuan;LIU Sen;REN Lei-sheng;MA Zhao-xia(Hypervelocity Impact Research Center,China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center,Mianyang 621000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国空气动力研究与发展中心超高速所,绵阳621000

出　　处：《空间碎片研究》2018年第3期17-24,共8页Space Debris Research

摘　　要：针对航天器空间碎片撞击风险评估问题,提出一种基于易损性分析的风险评估方法。该方法考虑了空间碎片超高速撞击航天器外部结构产生的二次碎片/碎片云粒子分布问题,采用射线跟踪法对二次碎片/碎片云粒子的弹道轨迹进行描述,同时考虑了航天器内部部件的结构失效和功能降阶问题,利用失效模式及影响分析和失效树分析法建立了部件的不同失效模式与卫星分系统、卫星预定任务的影响关系,提出了部件失效概率p_k和系统失效概率P_k的计算方法,并应用该方法对卫星在空间碎片超高速撞击下的撞击风险进行了分析,得到了初步的结果。To assess the risk of spacecraft under the impact of space debris, an assessment method based on vulnerability analysis is proposed in this paper. The distribution of the sub-debris/debris cloud particles resulting from the hypervelocity impact of space debris on the outer structure of the spacecraft is considered, as well as the problem of the structure failure and function degradation of inner components. The Shot-Line algorithm is used to describe the ballistic trajectories of the sub-debris/debris cloud particles. The influence of the different failure modes of the components on the sub-systems of the spacecraft and the accomplishment of the spacecraft mission is established by using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) method. The method to calculate the components failure probability p_k and the system-level failure probability P_k of the spacecraft is proposed. As an example, the impact risk of a simulated satellite under the hypervelocity impact of the space debris is calculated by this method, and preliminary results are presented.

关 键 词：易损性 航天器 空间碎片 风险评估 

分 类 号：V528[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]