中美贸易摩擦下跨境电商物流联盟风险预判与战略突围  

Risk Prejudgement and Strategic Breakthrough of Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics Alliance Under Sino-US Trade Friction

作　　者：谢泗薪[1] 尹冰洁 XIE Si-xin;YIN Bing-jie(Economics and Management School of CAUC,Tianjin300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津市300300

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2019年第2期73-82,共10页China Business and Market

基　　金：天津市政府决策咨询重点课题"天津国家自主创新示范区‘一区多园’科技服务业总体发展模式与战略构建"(ZFZX2015-9)

摘　　要：2018年以来,中美贸易摩擦不断升级,美国政府针对我国出口商品征收大幅关税,实施严苛投资限制,对我国跨境电商物流发展形成了比较大的冲击。在这样的形势下,为最大程度降低中美贸易摩擦带来的潜在风险,面对物流需求模式的较大转变以及物流资源供给的动态竞争,我国跨境电商物流企业作为进出口贸易供应链必不可少的一环,要迅速组建物流联盟,借助高新技术向自动化、可视化、可控化、智能化、信息化、网络化新型智慧物流转型升级,在物流作业各环节不断寻求突破与创新。当前,我国跨境电商物流联盟面临的外部风险主要包括一般环境风险、经济环境风险和市场环境风险,内部风险主要包括融资风险、物流能力风险和管理协调能力风险。可以据此构建风险预警机制和风险指标体系,进而从战略层面和操作层面入手设计战略突围方针和相应的突围对策。具体而言,就是要确立以创新性构建跨境电商智慧物流生态圈、实时打造跨境电商智慧物流运营全方位信息系统、积极挖掘跨境电商智慧物流核心技术为核心的战略突围方针;就是要从政策法规变动、社会不稳定、经济衰退、市场需求变动四个方面入手做好精准调研预测,从时间、成本、质量、技术四个维度入手提升物流能力,从沟通、文化、信用、激励四个角度入手加强管理协调,三位一体进行跨境电商风险防控,积极进行战略突围。Since 2018,Sino-US trade friction have been raging.The U.S.government has imposed large tariffs on a number of large and heavy trade export commodities and imposed severe investment restrictions,which have greatly impacted the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics in China.Under this situation,to alleviate the potential risks brought the trade friction,China’s cross-border e-commerce enterprises should build logistics alliance,realize the transformation and upgrading,pursue new breakthroughs and innovation in every link in logistic operation.It can be concluded that the external risks of the alliance include general environmental risks,economic environmental risks and market environmental risks;the internal risks of the alliance include financing risks,logistics capacity risks and management coordination capacity risks.Based on this,a risk early warning mechanism and a risk index system are established.From the strategic point of view,the authors put forward the strategic breakthrough policy for building the development system of cross-border e-commerce intelligent logistics,including innovative construction of crossborder e-commerce intelligent logistics ecosystem,real-time building of cross-border e-commerce intelligent logistics operation omnidirectional information system,and actively tapping the core technology of cross-border e-commerce intelligent logistics.That is to do a good job of accurate investigation and prediction from the four aspects of policy and regulation changes,social instability,economic recession,and market demand changes to enhance logistics capability from such four dimensions as time,cost,quality,and technology,and to strengthen management coordination from such four angles as communication,culture,credit,and incentive.And we should also promote risk control by the“three in one”activities,and try to realize the strategic breakthrough.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 跨境电商物流联盟 风险预判 战略突围 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]