辽河流域年平均径流对气候变化响应的试验分析  

The experimental analysis on the response of the annual average runoff to climate change in Liaohe river basin

作　　者：孙凤华[1] 李丽光[1] 袁健 刘鸣彦[3] 谢艳兵[1] 胡伟[2] SUN Feng-hua;LI Li-guang;YUAN Jian;LIU Ming-yan;XIE Yan-bing;HU Wei(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,CMA,Shenyang 110016,China;Weather Modification Office in Liaoning Province,Shenyang,Liaoning 110016,China;Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110168,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,辽宁沈阳110016 [3]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第6期91-95,共5页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金课题(20170540900)资助

摘　　要：利用Holland等建立的模型,针对辽河干流流域,基于近几十年的历史气象水文观测数据率定模型参数,并建立了流域的年尺度气候—径流模拟模型。利用建立的模型,进行模拟试验、敏感性试验及预估试验分析。结果表明:在年降水量均增加10%的条件下,如气温增高1℃,则年径流量会增加14.0%;如年平均气温降低1℃,则年径流量会增加31.5%。在年平均气温均升高1℃的条件下,如年降水量增加10.0%,则年径流量会增加14.0%;如年降水量减少10.0%,则年径流量会减少30.0%,径流对降水量变化的响应更为敏感。根据国家气候中心发布的气候变化情景预估数据,对于2001—2030年模拟预估结果为,在B1情景下,气温升幅适中,降水量增加明显,径流量增加较为明显; A1B情景下,气温升幅明显,降水量增加适中,径流量增加相对最少; A2情景下,气温升幅最少,降水量增加适中,径流量增加处于中等水平。Based on the historical meteorological and hydrological observation data over the past several decades,the parameters of the model established by Holland et al(1978).were calibrated.Meanwhile,an annual time-scale climate-runoff simulation model for the Liaohe River basin was built.Based on the new model,the simulation,sensitivity and prediction tests were carried out.The results indicate that under the condition of increase of annual precipitation by 10%,the annual runoff will increase by 14%and 31.5%in accordance with temperature increasing and decreasing by 1℃,respectively.However,under the condition of the increase of 1℃in annual mean temperature,the annual runoff will increase by 14%and decrease by 30%corresponding to annual precipitation increasing and decreasing by 10%,respectively,which indicates that the response of runoff to the variation of precipitation is relatively more sensitive.On the basis of the estimated data for climate change scenarios released by the national climate center,the simulated predication results during 2001-2030 show that under the scenario of B1,temperature rises moderately and precipitation increases significantly as well as runoff increases evidently.In addition,under the scenario of A1B,temperature rises obviously and precipitation increases moderately while runoff increases with a small amplitude.Besides,under the scenario of A2,the increasing amplitude of temperature is smallest and precipitation increase moderately as well as the increase of runoff is in a medium level.

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 响应 辽河流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]